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March 2007, IOR Exclusive |
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First Iran Oil Refining Forum (IOR1) | Summit 2007 |
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A Necessary Legal Framework |
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The participation of non-governmental
actors can "start from planning and construction of a given project to
running and management of the venture and in some examples, even the
marketing and distribution of the produced goods." |
In today’s competitive markets, the
attraction of foreign direct investment is of paramount importance. Yet,
achieving that objective requires countries to take specific steps towards
establishing the safeguards and measures required for an investor-friendly
environment. As such, one of the key challenges the Iranian refinery sector is
faced with is the ability to attract international investment. In order to
successfully draw the necessary funds needed for developing and expanding
refinery capacity in the coming years and moving to meet the demand needs of
both the domestic and international market, the Iranian petroleum sector
strives to create an investor-friendly environment with specific safeguards
designed to comfort and ensure investors as a whole.
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Dr. Mahmoud Reza
Firoozmand, Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy,
University of Dundee, UK |
In a paper titled " An Ideal Legal
Framework For Attracting Foreign Investment into the Iranian Refining Sector:
A Law and Policy Analysis," Dr. Mahmoud Reza Firoozmand discussed the major
challenges facing the industry in attracting investments and the initiatives
undertaken in order to facilitate a friendly environment for investors. In his
presentation, Dr. Firoozmand, PhD, Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral
Law and Policy, University of Dundee, UK, set out to "shed some light on
different aspects of these legal arrangements, their underpinning policies and
their relevance to the attraction of foreign investments into the downstream
sector of the Iranian petroleum industry." He addressed the main topic of the
paper after providing a comprehensive overview of the numerous challenges
faced by the Iranian refining sector.
The Iranian refining sector is rooted in
the history of the development of the country’s oil industry. By the late
1960s, Iran had undertaken major refining projects both within and outside the
country, notably in India and South Africa, and had rapidly moved to become a
leading player in the global refining sector. These developments were hindered
with the victory of the Islamic Revolution in 1979 and the onset of the
imposed Iran-Iraq war in 1980. Today, the country is on the tract of repairing
the damage done to its refining capacity throughout the upheavals of war and
revolution. In order to make up for lost time, "Iran now needs 2.5 million bpd
refining capacity, a target which requires an investment of up to 17 billion
dollars." Accomplishing this goal will both meet the domestic demand for oil
and will also provide a new source of revenue for the government.
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The Persian Gulf countries have
enjoyed high oil revenues and are expected to invest that money within
the energy sector in the coming years. |
The achievement of these goals is
dependent on large inflows of foreign investment into the country. A number of
considerations mainly of an economic nature decrease the appetite for
investing in the oil refining industry, especially the fact that similar to
other downstream infrastructure projects, the refining sector requires a large
amount of irretrievable investments. There is also the high rate of
expenditure related to the refining sector. As Firoozmand explains,
"approximately 10 to 15 thousand US dollar is needed to create one barrel per
day of refined oil product. That means to build a refinery with 100.000 barrel
per day of capacity; we talk about an investment of up to 1.5 billion US
dollar." There is also a need to continuously upgrade the equipment and
installations used in the refining sector with technologies being modernized
every ten years. Moreover, given the long-term nature of investments in the
refining sector, there is a higher risk related to investing in this sector.
Social, political, and economic stability is of utmost importance and for
these reasons, the majority of refining industries have been nearly wholly
government-owned or financed.
Investment
Scenarios: In
order to meet the investment challenge, a country can either invest its own
capital into projects it deems necessary, or provide the opportunity for other
parties, either domestic or foreign, to take part in developing such projects.
The participation of non-governmental actors can "start from planning and
construction of a given project to running and management of the venture and
in some examples, even the marketing and distribution of the produced goods."
They can play a positive role in capital-intensive projects, such as those
within the petroleum industry, and can share the risks associated with large
infrastructure projects that are both complicated and face greater risk. They
can also be vital in the transfer of new technologies and technological
advances and will be able to assist the government in reaching out to markets
for the distribution of the final product.
There are also specific factors
determining investment within Iran which Firoozmand highlighted in his
presentation. According Article 122 of Iran’s third Economic, Cultural and
Social Development Plan, private investors are allowed to make investment in
the refining industry and the involvement of domestic private investment could
well serve the general goals of privatization. Yet, the private sector in Iran
is not as mature as required to participate in gigantic projects, or take
risks associated with this group of projects and is not able to provide
"competitive technologies" that can benefit the overall sector. Thus, it does
not have the scope and capacity of major multinational companies working in
the field. Another scenario is the direct involvement of foreign companies
within the Iranian sector which is also made possible by the current laws and
provisions. Article 3 of Iran’s Foreign Investment Promotion and Protection
Act states that: "Foreign Investments may be admitted under the following two
categories: a) foreign direct investment (FDI) in areas where the activity of
the private sector is permitted." Moreover, Article 122 third Economic,
Cultural and Social Development Plan authorizes the Ministry of Petroleum to
allow foreign companies to play an important role in domestic projects. Thus,
the law provides a very clear groundwork for foreign investment to be
undertaken within Iran.
Yet, as Firoozmand predicts, there is a
high risk associated with investing in Iran which prevents foreign companies
to undertake major projects. These include questions surrounding social and
political stability and the overall economic make-up of the country with its
emphasis on state-planned activities. In such a situation, the formation of
joint partnerships between the Iranian government and specific multi-national
companies may provide the most suitable alternative scenario. However, Iran
lacks the "sufficient legal institutions for formation and providing legal
protections for such partnerships." It also needs to move fast to create an
investor-friendly environment if it wishes to be able to compete with other
countries in attracting foreign capital.
Investor
Motives: There
are a number of factors that investors take into account when making
investment decisions. Firstly, there is the question regarding the feasibility
and profitability of a venture. Every investor wishes to make profit from his
investment and after assessing the technical and economic feasibility of a
project, investors come to decide whether or not it is profitable as well. In
the case of refining projects, issues such as whether or not "sufficient oil
reserve is available to feed the refinery, whether there exist appropriate
transportation services, e.g. pipelines, to bring crude oil into the refinery
and also to transport the refined products to markets or loading points," are
all taken into account. They will also take into account market fluctuations
and domestic pricing schemes in order to asses the economics of a given
project.
There is also the concern regarding
"legal stability and environment security." Investors will only transfer their
capital resources into an environment which is deemed to be safe and stable.
In this light, Iran has adopted a number of initiatives that are designed to
lure investors into the country, including the Iran Foreign Investment
Promotion and Protection Act of 2002. It has also moved to single out specific
organizations within the state bureaucracy that are charged with the goal of
promoting foreign investment into the country and facilitating such
investments. Iran has also been working to provide legal incentives to
investors that are active within the field. Such incentives include exemption
from custom duties and ownership of needed land. The country is also moving to
provide legal guarantees for investors.
In conclusion, Firoozmand mentioned that
there is a "growing consensus" within the country that a greater number of
foreign investors need to be drawn into the country and that appropriate
action should be taken by both the executive and the legislative branches of
government in order to facilitate a welcoming environment for investors. The
speaker also called for greater transparency in attracting investments into
the country. Following these recommendations will provide a suitable
opportunity for investors to play a bigger role within the Iranian refining
sector.
Attracting
Investment:
Another speaker at the 1st Iran Oil Refining Forum who spoke on the specifics
regarding the inflow of foreign investment was Zaki Hassan, Managing Director,
Global Union Energy Ventures, Ltd, U.K. He also emphasized the important role
investments can play in the future development of the refining sector. To
begin with, he presented an overall analysis of the refining sector and the
amount of investments needed. According to estimates, nearly $20 trillion will
be invested in the energy sector by 2030. Moreover, the "center of gravity is
also shifting towards the Middle East, Russia, and China" with half of all
announced refineries being implemented in six Asian countries, including Iran.
It is very evident that there is fierce competition within the international
market for attracting investments. Zaki mentioned that while no expects all
announced projects to be completed on time, there is a high likelihood that in
the coming decades nearly $200 billion will be spent on expanding refining
capacity. As the speaker pointed out, "there will certainly be some losers
along with some winners." It is important, in this light, for Iran to be among
the winners and to take advantage of the drive towards greater investment in
the region. There is also a difference between the operating costs and
establishment cost of refineries in the Middle East and Asia as compared to
Europe and North America. This price gap is due to the presence of "indigenous
markets" that work to bring down the operational costs of a refinery.
According to the 2006 Middle East
Economic Survey, a total of $395 billion will be invested within the region in
the 2007-2011 periods. The breakdown of these investments show a great deal of
money will be spent on downstream projects such as well as power production.
Zaki also mentioned that there are a number of countries within the region
that are competing with Iran for capital attraction. He mentioned that it is
important for Iran to understand its potential and for it to take action to
fulfill that potential. With nearly 12 percent of global oil reserves, Iran
only produces 5 percent of the global daily output. Moreover, Iran has nearly
15 percent of global gas reserves and only produces 3 percent of the global
daily gas output. Major foreign credit institutions have not been active
within the Iranian market and this can also be an attractive factor for
investors moving to take advantage of first-time advantage.
With high oil prices, "there is a high
rate of liquidity within the region with a lot of money looking into sectors
to invest." The Persian Gulf countries have enjoyed high oil revenues and are
expected to invest that money within the energy sector in the coming years.
Zaki then moved to examine the attractiveness of a specific country and
whether or not it is investor-friendly. There are a number of tangible factors
that impact this, including geography, capital cost within the country, and
political and economic stability. "Investors don’t like surprises," mentioned
Zaki. There is also a very economic consideration behind every investment
taking place since investors are looking to increase the return on their
money. He mentioned that investors are looking for good governance, financial
responsibility, and transparency.
In this light, it is expected that Iran
should move to promote its various potential markets and should create a
closer link with industries and actors that are active within the field of
investments. He also resonated many of the potential options that were
outlined in previous speeches such as establishing special economic zones and
providing other incentives to investors getting involved within the sector. In
conclusion, it is very clear that Iran needs to be cognizant of the different
potentials it has for expanding and enhancing its refining capacity. |
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CURRENT ISSUE |
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March 2007
IOR Exclusive |
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