The global refining industry has undergone a number of major transformations in recent years. Increased demand for refined goods has made it imperative for energy producing countries to focus their attention on playing a greater role in the refining sector. Moreover, the focal point of future refining centers is bound to shift from North American and Europe to emerging Asian countries such as China and India and the countries of the Middle East. Moreover, there have been new governmental measures put in place aimed at curbing the negative environmental impacts of expanding refining capacities.

Olivier Appert, President of IFP, France

One of the main issues examined at the 1st Iran Oil Refining Forum was the global situation of the refining sector. Different speakers tackled this issue and provided a comprehensive overview of future developments within the field. In a speech titled, "Global Refining Outlook," Olivier Appert, President of IFP, France, presented an overall analysis of the world oil market. His speech covered three main topics. Firstly, he presented the main challenges facing the global refining sector. Throughout the next coming decades, energy demand will continue to increase; with oil remaining the "single most important fuel now and up to 2030." This increase in demand is in conjunction with rises in world gross domestic product rates and is mainly driven by developing countries.

The share of transport is "increasing at the cost of all the other sectors," since vehicle ownership is the main drive behind the large share of transport. As countries such as China, Russia, and India move to meet their great potential for expanding their vehicle fleet, the demand for light oil products will increase rapidly as well. This also presents a major challenge for the global refining industry since only "%5 of projected demand growth is for heavy end uses." The rise in light oil products will happen as world global crude quality continues to fall. Another main challenge facing the refining industry is the lack of spare capacity which has been nearly optimized and action needs to be taken to reverse this trend.

Secondly, the global refining sector requires greater global investment. Appert mentioned that by 2030, nearly $30 billion worth of investment is needed in the global oil refinery sector. That is twice the current rate. Fifty percent of that investment will take place in the Middle East and developing Asian countries. This is due to the fact that the "the market requires more complex refineries in the future," with a focus on new technologies such as treating heavy and extra-heavy crudes and added conversion technology that require more upgrading capacity. Thus, "huge investments are required in order to cope." Moreover, the general context of the refinery industry "will strongly favor investment in the regions where the demand is strong or in producing countries where cost is competitive." Investments will be driven by the factors shaping demand and supply in the future.

Appert also discussed the Iranian refining market and remarked that it presents a number of "specificities in compared to other Middle East markets with gasoline demand being much higher due to lower prices." In this light, he discussed the different options for coping with the challenges presented. While updating current refineries is possible, it will be "necessary to build new refineries adapted to Iranian crudes and focused to the production of gasoline." At the current rate nearly half of Iranian gasoline needs is being imported. Priority should be given to "improving the efficiency of the national car fleet and pricing schemes." Moreover, the country can look into developing alternatives to gasoline in order to cope with the challenges presented.

Vona examined the global fuel quality outlook and mentioned that the greatest challenge faced by refiners "is not in the crude feedstock but rather in the product demand mix and product specifications." In this light, "the heavier shift to crudes is going to require much more conversion capacity." There are a number of factors impacting this trend including a rise in population across the world, except in developed European countries, increases in the purchasing power of countries such as India and China, and increased demand for vehicles. Product demand is expected to grow to 107 million barrels per day in 2020 form a current level of 82 million barrels per day. The strong demand will be most visible from Asia and North America. Therefore, "even though the crude price has been phenomenally high over the past couple of years, it has done nothing to dampen the rate of consumption and demand for refined products."

Another important factor influencing this trend is that the "majority of global consumption is governed by price-regulated regimes, and only North America and Europe are governed by a de-regulated market." Furthermore, local price controls support high regional demand growth. There is also a shift to less distillate and less residual fuel oil and the global demand for refined products is it to increase incrementally till 2020. Iran, for example, is the world’s second largest importer of gasoline, after the United States. Therefore, there is a need to invest and develop a refinery capacity that would be able to tackle this growing demand rate. Vona predicted that over 50 per cent of the refinery projects announced in the Middle East is expected to be completed, although with delays in their launching.

The speaker also discussed "cross-cutting issues that affect developed and developing countries alike" for seeking more bio-fuels that have a number of advantages over other alternatives discussed. The need for greater refined goods has also forced the global refinery sector to look into newer technologies that enable higher quality fuels. Vona delineated a number of such technologies ranging from distillation degeneracy to increases in octane levels and decreases in low sulfur and lead levels. If implemented, these technological advances have an impact on the performance of vehicles as well as on a more suitable environment. She highlighted the different solutions for different countries depending on feedstock and types of crude presented in each case. Middle Eastern countries, including Iran, are moving towards achieving European Union-approved standards and it will be seen how the region will cope with the developments within the refining sector.