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Monetary and Capital Market Exclusive, March 2004


 

Monetary and Capital Market in Iran

Fine-tuning the Financial Market

The stock exchange reduces economic corruption though restricting governmental ownership as well as large-scale economic ownership.

Today, most economists are unanimous that one of the most important differences between developing and developed economies is that financial markets of developed countries are more advanced than developing countries.

They argue that an efficient financial market can boost the capacity of loan recipients and, in turn make the economy more efficient through increasing investment in production. In fact, an advanced stock market would increase deposits and provide enough capital for active corporations, which would ultimately lead to increased economic growth. Capital markets provide investors with considerable resources at a low cost while distributing liquidity investment risks among investors.

In contrast, inefficiencies of financial markets would curb attraction of capitals and reining liquidity. This will culminate in development of underground economy, increased inflation, and killing job opportunities by obliterating suitable opportunities for economic activities. Before focusing on the relationship between the capital market and economic growth, we must come up with a clear definition of financial markets. The market is basically a mechanism through which transactions on goods, services and financial property are carried out between suppliers and demanders. Therefore, market might consist of a telecommunications network rather than a specific place.

Therefore, a financial market could be defined as a mechanism through which sums of money are transferred from depositors to demanders. The motivation behind the transfer is access to liquidity because cash suppliers are people who can delay making use of their money in return for a profit that would make up for replacing present use with future use as well as taking the accompanying risk. In return, demander of cash would be ready to undertake that cost to hasten use of money.

Financial markets are divided into monetary and capital markets. Monetary market supplies short-term cash to corporations as well as their circulating capital, while capital market is a market for long-term transactions and covers monetary claims that would be due in more than a year.

Due to key importance of the stock exchange as the main component of the capital market, we focus on the effective relation between stock exchange and its role in economic development. The positive effects of stock exchange on economic development could be summarized as follows:

Reducing Investment Risk: One of the most important factors in regards to investment is the level of risk; that is to what extent individuals are ready to take risks. Since lack of transparency in the capital market, supply and demand of stocks and existing laws increase risk, it can greatly affect investments. However, if transparency is accepted as an indispensable component of stock exchange, investment risk could be reduced to an acceptable level and this would increase investments and decrease cost of access to investment that would, in turn, lead to increased economic production and growth.

Pricing Risk at Stock Exchange: Obviously, the more the investment risk, the more should be its return to encourage investment. Therefore, people’s willingness to take risks would be directly related to capital return. Stock market increases people’s trust and, as a result, encourages investments by pricing the existing risk in various sectors in view of their output.

Possibility of Merging Risks: Since investing in any economic unit entails specific risks, the bourse makes it possible to keep a balanced combination of stocks and avail of a specific profit through investing in various stocks with various risk rates.

Facilitating Liquidity Risk: The liquidity is the ability to turn assets into purchasing power at an agreed price and liquidity risk would mean lack of trust in converting assets to a medium for transactions. Therefore, information asymmetry and exchange costs will decrease liquidity and increase risks. The relation between liquidity and economic development is that projects with high return would need capital commitments in the long run while depositors are not interested to leave their deposits for a long time. Therefore, if the financial system did not increase liquidity of long-term investments, no remarkable investment would be made in projects with high return. The vital role of liquidity in production efficiency has been upheld by history. Hicks (1969) believed that inventions of new technology did not lead to the industrial revolution in England because most of them had been accomplished many years earlier. However, inefficiency of financial markets in increasing liquidity stymied projects that needed high capital because investors were not willing to make long-term investments since their deposits in the capital market could not be converted to cash.

Reducing Cost of Access to Information for Investment: Since depositors lack enough time, capacity and tools for gathering and processing information related to corporations, directors and economic conditions, they would pursue activities on which reliable information would be available. Therefore, high cost of acquiring information would curb attraction of capital currents. For example, if a corporation considered a fixed cost for acquiring information on production technology, everybody that would need that information would have to pay that cost. While if they acted as a group, the costs would be divided among them. Therefore, economization of information acquisition process on existing investment opportunities would lead to better allocation of capital resources.

If the stock market were not efficient, the corporations would have to suffice to their own resources for investments.

Here, the role of stock markets is gathering information and reflecting them through prices. Therefore, even those who have not gone through the costly process of evaluating corporations and directors and conditions in the stock market, could have access to stock prices that reflect information gathered by others.

Performance of Stock Exchange Based on Complete Competition Model: By providing all conditions necessary for a competitive market, the stock exchange has paved the way for determination of stock prices in a competitive manner. Therefore, allocation of resources would be carried out in an efficient and optimal manner.

If the stock market were not efficient, the corporations would have to suffice to their own resources for investments. This would have led to different final outputs in various sectors and, as a result the goals of optimal allocation of resources would not have been realized. On the opposite, if performance of bourse were optimal, the final output would be nearly equal in all sectors and the capital would be allocated in an optimal manner.

Facilitating Exchange: Bourse leads to better division of labor and higher economic efficiency and growth by reducing exchange costs, on the one hand, and speeding up transactions, on the other hand.

Reducing Supervision Costs: By identifying economic sectors with a low output, the stock market will reduce investments in those sectors while increasing investments in high-output sectors and profitable corporations. At the same time, group supervision will decrease costs of supervision.

If a borrower intended to take the money from many investors outside the corporation, all people outside the corporation should have to pay the cost of supervision while those costs would be reduced to a minimum due to presence of financial intermediaries because the borrowing corporation would only be run by intermediaries and not all investors.

Financing: One of the most important roles played by the stock exchange is financing including financing private institutes or the government. Governments embark on selling bonds through the stock market to make up for their budget deficits. If investments needed for the first and second development plans had been supplied through presenting bonds, it would have considerably reduced financial burden on the government as well as the budget deficit. The government would also have been capable of increasing efficiency of investments by supervising recruited capitals and managing developmental projects. On the other hand, private institutes could acquire their needed capital for the inauguration and development of economic corporations.

Contributing to Economic Balance: Another important function of the bourse along with other financial markets is creating balance in the national economy. The stock market makes the current of financial resources proportionate to economic activities. Lack of this proportion would lead to such crises as incompatibility of production and liquidity volume, budget deficit for the government or deficit in foreign payments balance that would be ensued by inflation and stagnation.

People’s Participation: Establishment of an efficient capital market will lead to the expansion of public ownership, equitable wealth distribution; increasing public trust as well as establishing a sense of public participation in the society that collectively alleviate pressures born by the government.

Reducing Economic Corruption: The stock exchange reduces economic corruption though restricting governmental ownership as well as large-scale economic ownership. As a result, it would reduce the size of underground economy that would be ensued by increase in the tax base, increased revenues and reduced budget deficit. Economic corruption will also lead to capital flight.

A close look at statistics and information would show that the overall performance of the stock exchange has been quite unsatisfactory. In other words, the market had lacked adequate efficiency. An efficient capital market is one that provides capital for those who use it at the lowest price. If a market failed to do so, investing in it would not be profitable. Therefore, wondering capitals would find their way into traditional, low-output and sometimes even underground channels instead of working as a driving force behind productive economic activities. One of the most important reasons for the inefficiency of Iran’s capital is the economic problems plaguing its economic system. In fact, the capital market reacts inefficiently to its environment. For example, underdevelopment of the private sector or the government’s interference in economic affairs has left untoward effects.

Here we will point out some problems plaguing Iran’s capital market:

1. Vastness of the Governmental Sector: The most important obstacle to activities of the stock market in Iran is the enormity of governmental activities and the state-run sector. A number of the most important impediments to development of the stock market in Iran include:

A) The process of allocating capital resources is affected by financial institutions, banks, insurance firms and so on, which are controlled by the government in a state-run economy both in terms of ownership and policymaking. This will weaken the capital and stock market.

B) Experience has shown that total liberalization of stock prices in Iran will lead to spuriously high prices due to shortage in supply and hike in demand. Therefore, Iran’s stock exchange market would be forced to take direct action for controlling stocks prices. Shortage of stock supply is also a result of state control over many economic corporations (selling stocks through Privatization Organization is a current example in this regard).

C) Expanded economic activities by the government will lead to lack of economic and legal security because the private sector would speculate that if it endangered the state-run sector’s interests, the latter would act to protect its interests through changing laws and regulations. The result of this sense of insecurity would be flight of domestic capitals as well as reduction in foreign investments.

2. Inefficient Tax System: Inefficiency of the tax system will increase profitability of brokerage sectors. As a result, capitals will be pushed toward brokerage activities regardless of the added value of the economic sectors. Since mobilized resources in the stock exchange would be poured into productive activities, profitability of unproductive activities and brokerage will direct those resources away from the stock market.

3. Inefficient Laws and Regulations: Laws and regulations governing the Iranian stock exchange were drawn up four decades ago while new conditions governing capital markets and modern systems of financial markets require a change in those regulations.

4. Dependence of Bourse on the Monetary Market: The stock exchange in our country is a subsidiary to the Central Bank of Iran. Therefore, the Central Bank has sometimes used it as a tool to realize its interests. This issue has hampered growth in the stock market.

5. Unequal Competition between Stock Market and the Banking System: Banking system has been the most important pillar of the capital market in the country through supplying long-term financial resources and financing governmental projects.

Unfortunately, bank deposits yield much higher profits than stocks while lacking any kind of risks too and its liquidity is one hundred percent. On the opposite, due to very low speed of transactions at the stock exchange, the degree of liquidity there is much lower. It is obvious that the monetary market would overtake the capital market in such an uneven competition.

6. Absence of Competition Conditions: As was stated before, a feature of the stock market is competition, which is lacking in the Iranian stock market for certain reasons. Firstly, there is no transparency in access to accurate information and, secondly, the price is not determined according to market mechanisms. It must be noted that the price control system used in the stock market, would redirect investment motivations toward those fields that lack economic priority. It was noted before that enforcing a liberalized pricing system in the Iranian bourse has not produced favorable results and had led to the emergence of spurious prices, which is a result of low supply of stocks as a result of excessive governmental control.

The above facts are only part of the obstacles on the way of developing the capital market in the country. Attention to the following points can work to develop stock market activities and pave the way for taking advantage of economic profits:

1) Playing a more active role on the part of the Privatization Organization to downsize the government and ceding state-run banks to the private sector as well as preventing an outward change in management of state-run corporations under the guise of privatization;

2) Revising all related laws and regulations to pave the way for development of the private sector including:

A) Amending tax law in such a way as to curb unproductive and brokerage activities;

B) Presenting an accurate interpretation of Article 42 of the Constitution to attract foreign investments and clear the way for the presence of foreign investors on the stock market;

C) Reviewing those trade and labor laws as well as internal regulations of the stock market that do not conform to conditions currently prevailing in the market;

3. Efforts in line with accurate information dissemination on the stock market;

4. Efforts to strengthen economic stability and stabilizing laws and regulations;

5. Detente in foreign relations;

6. Planning to reduce control on prices and eliminate other controls and unnecessary regulations.

It conclusion, we must note that inattention to investment and low production would be ensued with increased unemployment and widespread poverty, which would in turn result in social crises and endanger national security.

 

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  March 2004