Everything Under Control
$1=Rls.7900
Dr. Mohsen Nourbakhsh, Governor of the Central Bank of
Iran (CBI), was at the news highlight for a few weeks after the new minister of economic
affairs and finance took office. As the word was spreading that the CBI chief was going to
leave office together with a few managing directors of state-run banks in his camp, Dr.
Nourbakhsh appeared in a news conference to reassure that he was not making any plans to
leave.
He also talked about the CBIs measure to
issue bonds for decreasing liquidity and beating inflation. One new tool in our
financial policy is to direct unused capitals towards major development and infrastructure
projects, he said. Excerpts:
Future Plans, Current Commitments: A decision by the Iranian Government to have a stable foreign
currency price system in place has already secured a Parliamentary approval and will have
seen the US dollar hover around the 7900-rial level by March 2002.
To stabilize national economy, the government has committed
itself to beating fluctuations in foreign currency price. This will help us have a
clear-cut image about the status of both producers and consumers. A dollar slipping under
the 7900 rials will render the government unable to stand on its own feet.
The Iranian government is bent to introduce a single-rate foreign currency price system.
To that end, the Management and Planning Organization is drawing up a plan.
Irans Foreign Currency Savings Fund is to lend financial assistance to
177 projects worth $836 million. |
Export, Import, Revenue, Debt and Investment Figures: Foreign currency prices on the black market
registered a 4.1% increase in the 5 months to August 22, 2001. A joint supervision of
supply and demand by the government and the Central Bank along with a single-rate system
will beat price fluctuations.
Iran had $3.54 billion in income surplus in the 5 months to
August 22, 2001. During the same period, exports earned Iran $11.019 billion in revenue.
Oil and gas accounted for $9.144 billion of the total amount. The country is expected to
earn $7.5 billion on the basis of TSE rate this year (ending March 21, 2002).
Our forecasts say that next year will not see a hike in prices of goods. Unlike what
economic analysts believe, stable foreign currency rates will not push the commodity
prices skywards because the government does not rely on the growth of the greenback rate
in supplying and tagging goods.
Investment has registered a 370% growth this year. That is a satisfactory figure. The
number of utilization licenses increased by 169.5% during the same period.
The wholesale index growth stood at 5.2% in the five months to August 22, 2001 as
wholesale price hike lost momentum.
Production costs slipped in the same period while the growth in producer price index stood
at 11.2%. The price index of exported goods grew by 7% which is below the inflation rate.
This allowed Iranian exporters to remain competitive despite stability in hard currency
prices on the international stage.
Liquidity growth was 9.7% in late August. Credits granted to non-governmental sectors were
9.8%. There was a 15.9% increase in the licenses issued for manufacturing units.
Irans non-oil exports have registered a 35.2% increase. Imports have followed suit
going up by 29.5%. Irans foreign debts are now no more than $7.3 billion.
Years of drought have dealt Irans agriculture industry a blow forcing us to place
wheat on top of the imports list. Imports of basic items have climbed by 11.4%. Imports of
industrial equipment rose by 45.4% whereas the figure stood at 35.5% for chemicals and raw
material.
Stock Market Takes a Beating: Recent international developments temporarily dampened trading on
Tehran Stock Exchange but trade has now returned to normal. Stock returns stood at 47.8%
in the 5-month period while cash returns of shares were no more than 13.4%. The growth of
financial index stood at 54.5%.
The growth at the Sock Market can be identified as tangible
and stock returns have now hit a satisfactory level. Buying shares, small investors signal
readiness to contribute to the investment process. I dont think we will face the
same problems bourses recently suffered in other countries.
Stabilization
Fund: Our Foreign Currency Savings
Fund is to lend financial assistance to 177 projects worth $836 million. Agreements on
some projects are already finalized. Letters of credit are being opened for some others.
An investment-oriented policy will sustain this trend. |