LNG Synonymous with Market
Christophe de Margerie, Executive Vice President of
TotalFinaElf, has visited Iran several times. However, he had rarely found the appropriate
occasion to present the views of his company on LNG market trends. The opening panel of
the Middle East Gas Resources and Opportunities Forum provided this occasion:
Market Above All:
LNG, first of all, means market. Market trends means price trends. Except for Japan, Korea
and Taiwan where most gas supply is in form of LNG, in all other areas especially
in the United States only an approximate 1% of gas supplies include LNG. In Europe,
this figure currently stands around 7.7%. That means great opportunities for the future,
but certainly in very different ways. At the same time, we can see the emergence of new
markets like India, China and perhaps one day, Brazil.
Price Mechanisms:
Asia, Europe and USA are considered as the main markets for LNG. But price mechanisms
definitely vary in each continent. In Asia, LNG has historically played the role of a
substitute fuel for power generation.
Within Asia, Japan is by far a major market for LNG. While
coal-based and nuclear sources pose a competition in this market; one can see a good start
of deregulation which brings changes to the contracts. Contracts are no longer
incorporating inflation, instead, they are calling for price reduction on a regular basis.
Another important mechanism today is one that would protect the investor when oil price is
low, and the buyer when oil price is high. The buyers are becoming more drastic in terms
of all operational flexibilities that would enable them swallow more gas. This is a
positive change that would certainly give us the opportunity of bringing more LNG into a
huge market.
The situation in Korea is a little different. There are a lot of terminals. Deregulation
of economy and gas market are the most important developments there. Given the
privatization of gas business, we currently see huge opportunities in Korea.
Taiwan has been a constant buyer of gas, mainly from Indonesia. Standing in lower levels
than the Japanese and Korean markets, Taiwan will be in demand of new quantities once it
launches its northern terminal.
We see Iran as a huge potential supplier of gas to potential markets and we are
pleased to be in one of the projects. |
Emerging Markets:
The new emerging markets for LNG include India which enjoys a massive potential. Several
companies are trying to build relationships in pursuit of long-term clients in India.
However, I must say that the situation in that country is a little complex. Despite
complications, we will do our best regarding this market since India has tremendously
changed and offers great opportunities for potential gas suppliers; especially Iran. We do
hope that authorities in India will appreciate that there has to be a mutual trust between
buyers and sellers.
China is another new market. There has been much publicity on
the launching of this countrys first terminal, to be followed by two others.
Nevertheless, we have to educate this vast market. They have to know what are the rules of
LNG. This has nothing to do with being competitive since sellers are already taking good
risks in projects which are highly capitalistic.
Going back to Europe, the market is educated and accustomed to piped gas. There are huge
market potentials. Substitution of coal and nuclear energy with gas is currently a
much-discussed topic in Europe and we will certainly discuss plans for the huge LNG
market. The competition will undoubtedly be fierce and there is the possibility of rising
prices. Along with deregulation, this market also brings additional opportunities for LNG
as a way to compete with natural gas.
Last is the USA which has been buying LNG for many years, but at very small quantities.
Last year, a short fall of gas supply in that country brought LNG further into attention.
This could shape an important market for LNG coming from the Middle East.
Iran, Opportunity and Assurance: The Middle East is very well placed between two or three potential
markets. The problem obviously is the difference in net-back that is what you have at the
level of production and investment and the additional gap on transportation. Sometimes
this could create an increasingly important gap.
While the trend is predicted to be downward in Asia, it is
believed to go upward in Europe and USA. Therefore, the projects in the Middle East enjoy
a fine location even though they should trigger additional efforts to reduce the costs in
order to be competitive. We see Iran as a huge potential supplier of gas to those markets
and we are pleased to be in one of the projects.
TotalFinaElf has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with NIOC along with its traditional
partner Petronas. We are currently working hard to cover all the studies such as
marketing, technical and transportation. We are looking at two-train projects but at this
stage, it is basically a matter of discussion and confirmation. What we need to do very
quickly is to focus on the markets.
I assure that TotalFinaElf will be dedicated to this
new potential project further to development of phases 2 and 3 of South Pars Field.
Meanwhile, we are also committed to Balal and Dorood development. We do see Pars LNG as
one major additional opportunity to become a player in this beautiful, huge development of
Iranian gas business. |