The Crown Slops

Tony Blair in 2003 will endure his most uncomfortable year in power so far. The shine has long since gone off his administration. In 2003 the paintwork itself will begin to crack and peel. The British economy will falter, but that will be the least of Blair's worries. He and Gordon Brown, his Chancellor of the Exchequer, have established a reputation for sound – even ultra-cau­tious – economic management, and they will have no difficulty in deflecting blame on to adverse market con­ditions across the world. The saying used to be: “It's the economy, stupid.” But in Britain in 2003 it will not, surprisingly, be the economy at all.

Instead, one of Blair's most painful afflictions will be highly disruptive public-sector strikes. For years pay increases in the state sector have lagged far behind those in private business, and in 2003 chronic discontent among public-sector employees – teachers and health professionals as well as manual workers – will turn into outright anger. Some groups of aggrieved workers will take to the street; others will close down parts of the rail­way system, the London tube and even schools and some hospital services. Britain in 2003 will be like France in al­most every year since the Second World War. The British public will be annoyed and inconvenienced. But, as in France, it will back the workers. Most ordinary Britons see the Blair government as "them" and public-sector workers as "us". They will instinctively side with "us". Most people have friends and neighbors who work in the public sector and regard the long-term clampdown on public-sector pay as unfair. The national sense of fair-play will come to the workers' aid.

Tony Blair and his ministers will have no idea what to do. They will want to appear sympathetic and to avoid continuing disruption. But they will be in no position to afford big pay rises. Despite a steep increase in national insurance (social security) contributions due to take effect in early April, government revenues in 2003 will be squeezed – caught between New Labor's ambitious spending plans, already announced, and the effects of the worldwide economic downturn. Tough rhetoric will be combined with dithering, half-concessions and, almost certainly, further disruption.

The Labor Party has always valued Tony Blair pri­marily as a vote-winner. By mid-2003 he will look a less valuable commodity in that sense. Fortunately for him, the Conservatives have yet to recover from their self-in­flicted wounds of the 1990s and most of Labor's losses will be to the less threatening Liberal Democrats, and Scottish Nationalists north of the border. Even so, Blair's troubles will not be over. For the better part of a decade – between his election as Labor leader in 1994 and the autumn of 2002 – he has ruled his party in the style of an absolute monarch. Everyone owed him alle­giance. No one dared question his authority – his cabinet was quiescent to the point of ceasing to be a traditional British cabinet. Labor members of the House of Com­mons were slavishly loyal. Even party activists in the country remained silent.

That phase ended abruptly amid Labor's disputes over Iraq in 2002. Tony Blair no longer appears to be, as he did during the 1990s, a necessary condition of Labor electoral success. He will be blamed for the wave of labor unrest and for the public's discontent with Britain's public services. Like previous absolute mon­archs, he will, in the end, be held absolutely responsible.

At the close of 2003 Tony Blair will still – if he so chooses – be prime minister, but his domestic political standing will be much diminished. As a result, he will be reluctant to risk his reputation by holding a referendum on whether Britain should join the euro. Given his determination to remain close to the United States, he will end the year more popular in America than in his own country. Blair deserves credit for the way, in which he has led Britain internationally. And he is undoubtedly the best prime minister on offer. Neither of these facts will protect him from the wrath of the British public.