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IPF Exclusive / May 2003 |
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Fifth Iran
Petrochemical Forum | Summit 2003 |
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Iran and Its Future LNG Prospects
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"Phases 11, 12 and 13 of the
South Pars gas fields will be developed with the aim of providing enough
natural gas to produce 27 million tons of liquefied natural gas per
year." |
Iran has the second largest gas deposits
in the world but attempts at constructing LNG tanker vessels within the
country have only recently been made as parts of the South Pars gas deposits
are allocated for export. Around 75% of the world’s gas reserves are
concentrated in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and the Middle
East. Such exceptional circumstances has allowed the countries in the region
to offer liquefied natural gas (LNG) at international level and subsequently
overtake the markets in the world currently relying on piped-gas.
Today, there are two recognized methods
for the transfer of gas: the first is transfer via pipelines and the second is
the process of converting gas into liquid form, known as Liquefied Natural Gas
(LNG). It is interesting to note that the efficiency of both methods is
dependent on the distance between production and consumption. The transfer of
gas through pipelines is not economical for distances of over three thousand
kilometers due to the drop in pressure within the pipes. On the other hand,
special maritime tankers are needed to carry LNG and only a few countries in
the world possess the ability to build such vessels.
The problems of gas transfer from the
source to the consumer have constantly been a subject of study by the experts
in the gas industry. The encouraging element for those trying and making more
concerted efforts to tackle the problem and find a solution, is the constant
increase in the consumption of gas worldwide. The advancement of technology of
gas resource identification, excavation, exploration, extraction, distribution
and consumption alongside increases in demand due to a population boom plus
industrialization of developing countries has brought much attention to the
highly valued resource.
In 1993 identified gas deposits in the
entire globe were estimated at 146 trillion cubic meters, in 2000 the figure
stood at 158 trillion, in 2001 at 168 trillion m3 and it is
probable that this figure will continue to climb due to continual improvements
in identification, excavation and exploration methods. Russia possesses 30% of
world reserves, Iran is in second place with 15% and Qatar is third with only
5% to its name. Despite this fact Iran occupies the eighth place in the world
with regards to production of gas with Russia topping the list. The U.S.,
Canada, the U.K., Algiers, Indonesia and Holland are second to seventh
respectively.
56 trillion m3 of the world
deposits belongs to the CIS countries, 52 trillion to the Middle East, 11
trillion to Africa, 10 trillion to South West Asia and only 7 trillion m3
is located in South America. The natural gas energy demands from the year 2005
to 2020 are estimated to increase by 25% overall even though gas consumption
in the year 2020 has been predicted to rise to double the year 2000 figure.
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"Iran is the second country in
the world with the greatest deposits of gas but attempts to construct
LNG tanker vessels within the country have been made only recently." |
It is interesting to note that the
biggest importers of LNG, namely Japan, South Korea, Finland, France, Spain
and Italy are at the same time the major builders of LNG carriers in the
world. China is also gradually beginning to join the club. At present about
130 LNG carriers are active worldwide and another 50 orders have been placed
for the vessels. By building the vessels locally, the countries that are LNG
importers compensate for the high cost of gas imports. The cost for
construction of one LNG carrier in 1999 was less than $300 million. The figure
stabilized at the end of the 90’s and it is now in the range of $160-170
million.
LNG – Attributes, Production,
Consumption: Liquefied
Natural Gas or LNG is a transparent, odorless, non-toxic gas composed of 75%
to 95% methane, at temperatures close to -161° C. The fuel is obtained through
a complicated alteration process of natural gas. The gas has exactly the same
characteristics as ordinary natural gas, burns relatively well and is
environmentally friendly, at the same time produces less carbon dioxide and
greenhouse gases than oil or coal. LNG has become the logical replacement for
atomic fuels in nuclear plants of the more advanced countries in recent
periods. 90% of the new nuclear reactors in the U.S. are currently making use
of the fuel.
It should be noted that there is no
specific working relationship between the countries possessing the greatest
deposits of gas and the biggest exporters of LNG. Despite the fact that
Indonesia is not even ranked among the top ten countries with the largest
world gas deposits, it manages to export 28% of the LNG to the globe and
stands first in the world. Algiers, Malaysia and Qatar are in second to fourth
places respectively and each has shares of 19%, 15% and 10% of LNG exports.
Australia, Brunei, the UAE, Nigeria, Thailand, Oman and Libya each have less
than 10% shares in sales abroad.
Japan boasts 50% of total LNG imports in
the world and South Korea claims a further 15% of this share. France, Spain
and the U.S. each import 8%, 7% and 5% in that order. Less than 5% of the LNG
purchase figures belong to Taiwan, Turkey, Belgium and Italy. The recent
policy changes in the utilization of fuel in Japan and South Korea that
consume about 70% of the LNG in the world market and the efforts by China to
develop its own port facilities to receive the gas earlier than originally
predicted, may all be positive indications of the opportunity presented to the
gas-rich countries in the region, like Iran, to develop their facilities and
compete with nations like Malaysia and Indonesia for existing LNG demand.
Iran and LNG:
According to the latest evaluations made by
the National Iranian Oil Company and the Pars Gas Company which are the major
project managers of the North and South Pars gas fields, phases 11, 12 and 13
of the South Pars gas fields will be developed with the aim of providing
enough natural gas to produce 27 million tons of LNG per year. The officials
in the Oil Ministry have allowed the three phases to be used for this purpose
intent on actively competing in the world LNG market, aware that Iran is
falling behind in world import and export of the gas. Some critics believe at
the same time that Iran has come onto the scene too late and because of the
prevailing circumstances plus the high number of rivals, Iran will be unable
to succeed economically in the LNG market.
At the same time the local shipbuilders
have begun an all-out effort to receive orders for the production of LNG
tanker transporters. There has been much expert research to find the reason
for Iran’s inability to build ships considering the fact that the country
possesses 2700 kilometers of shoreline. Orders put to local sources for the
building of goods transporters and passenger vessels has increased in recent
years and many of those who consent to the constructions of LNG tankers
locally also believe that such orders must be placed with local companies to
help the industry grow in Iran. They are also of the opinion that countries
such as Japan and South Korea achieved success by relying on orders from their
local industries before capturing the international market.
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"Local ship building companies in Iran at present are
trying very hard to receive the necessary state sponsored facilities for
ship construction." |
Employment opportunities, improvement in
ship building capacity within Iran, and attracting international orders are
the best reasons offered for the building of LNG vessels locally by those in
support of the project. According to Mohammad Soori, Managing Director of
Iran’s Oil Tankers Company (IOTC), the export of LNG to China will begin from
2007. Soori expects 10 million tons of gas will be sold to China annually from
then on. Iran also aims to target other markets in Asia including India, South
Korea, Japan as well as Spain and England in Europe.
Local shipbuilding companies in Iran are
presently trying very hard to receive the necessary state sponsored facilities
for maritime construction. The Managing Director of Fara Sahel Iran Ship
building and Industries Complex, Karbalaei, said recently, "The approval by
the State for the provision of 90% of the expenses required by local
shipbuilding companies has paved the way for active participation by
shipbuilders on LNG vessels. In view of stiff global competition for transport
of LNG and the facilities called for by ship builders, we asked the State
Supervisory board to provide the industry with 90% of the cost of the ships to
be built locally".
Karbalaei went on to say, "preliminary
approval has been received from Iran’s Oil Tankers Company and if the matter
is fully approved the IOTC will place its first order for five LNG tanker
vessels with Fara Sahel Company. The possible joint venture partners
considered for this project are France, Spain, Japan and South Korea. Having
made the final choice of the partner, the building of the first ship will take
place on the premises of the foreign company partner and in the next stage;
the rest of the project will be completed in Iran." The Board of Directors in
charge of the foreign currency deposit account for this purpose has already
become active in support of local Iranian ship builders. The support offered
will be in the form of loans from the account according to international rates
to be repaid within ten years.
Existing pros and cons:
The existing problem for Iranian ship
building companies is that apart from having to solve the various difficulties
faced with when they try to receive orders, they must at the same time find
and specify a financing resource for the project. This is inconsistent with
the system of support and financing found in other countries where similar
companies obtain up to 93 percent of funds from their banking system. Those is
support of local ship construction believe that the most underprivileged
members of the industry must not be burdened by financing of such projects.
The other area of difficulty faced by
the local companies involved in ship building is the hardship suffered by the
banking and administrative systems in Iran, the existence of complicated and
restrictive rules and regulations such as those pertaining to customs,
construction of machinery and arrival\ departure of foreign experts. On the
other hand, the merits of transfer of technology and training of the labor
force within the local companies involved in the projects must be taken into
consideration as positive aspects. Many critics believe that the building of
seagoing vessels and more specifically LNG carriers must be conducted
according to the strictest international and environmental standards. They
express also that any delay in the conclusion of fleet orders because of local
order priorities will greatly harm the gas industry status at international
level.
Future Perspective:
Cooperation by Iran’s gas industry with
other national industries will lead to their localization, attraction of
technology and further activation. Considering that the gas industry must have
intimate relations with various other industries, the important role it plays
in the provision of present energy requirements and with Iran the second
country with the highest proven gas reserves in the world, there is no other
logical and economic path for Iran but to invest in the industry. The recent
strides by Iran for the production and distribution of LNG are an indication
of the strong desire by the country to engage the world markets in the years
to come. |
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CURRENT ISSUE |
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IPF Exclusive
May 2003 |
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