Iran started its new year of 1382 AH
(Iranian fiscal year starting on 21 March 2003) with two shocks. The first was
the American-led coalition attack on Iraq and the second was the death of Dr.
Seyed Mohsen Nourbakhsh. The tremors sent out by the second shock were far
more severe than those of the first, as no one anticipated or could believe
the sudden demise of Dr. Nourbakhsh, and indeed some are still grappling to
come to terms with the enormity of the tragedy.
Nourbakhsh was a familiar face in the
economic landscape of Iran, with more friends and foes than any other economic
policymaker, which is in itself a testimony to the impact his decisions and
policies had on the Iranian economy.
From the time when Nourbakhsh first
stepped onto the economic scene in 1981 until his days ended on 22 March 2003,
he firmly stood by his belief that the principals of market economy were the
only tried and true method of economic development and the key to the
country’s progress. This determination and resolve was clearly put on display
from the very beginning, in 1981, a time when the debate over "expertise and
dedication" dominated the country’s entire political-economic atmosphere. In
his memoirs of 1981 and 1983, Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, former-president and
current head of Iran’s expediency council, wrote, "the Islamic banking Society
has come to complain about the continuation of Bani Sadr’s policy on banking
and they are gradually starting to oppose Nourbakhsh as well" (Passing the
Crisis, p. 224). Nourbakhsh went on to serve as the Minister of Economy in
the cabinet of the then president Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani between 1989 and
1993.
Nourbakhsh’s performance can be mainly
assessed through the record of his three terms as the Director of the Central
Bank of Iran –from 1981 to 1986, 1994 to 1999 and 1999 until his death in
2003. Examination of his time in office shows that, contrary to allegations
from certain quarters he did not adopt his economic policies based on
political trends.
In the 1981-1986 period, when Nourbakhsh
had assumed the governorship of the Central Bank of Iran for the first time,
he was not only responsible for safeguarding economic principles –such as
progress and adjusting the rate of inflation– but he also had to grapple with
the economics of a country at war. During this period the most significant
event in the banking system became the passing of the Usury-Free Banking
Operations Law in 1983. Economic review has since shown that the gross
domestic production (GDP) grew by an average of 3% during this period, while
inflation ran at a rate of 10%. However, when Nourbakhsh left the Central Bank
in 1986 for three years, at the same time as the first development plan
commenced, inflation ran on average at 18% and the GDP shrank to 0.9%.
| We
must not forget his efforts and dedication in lowering the rate of
inflation and establishing a realistic currency exchange rate.
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Another matter that upset Iran’s
economy, from 1986 onwards –and we are still somewhat subject to its negative
consequences today– were the ‘obligatory facilities’ which were forced on the
Iranian economy. The pursuance of this policy meant that monetary resources
would be spent on projects that did not warrant any economic justification
whatsoever. When this process was legitimized and legalized, the banking
system became obliged to finance it. An additional side effect of this process
was concealment of the government's budget deficit. From 1982 onwards, the
Central Bank also came under pressure to adopt and conform to this policy, but
Nourbakhsh refused to comply for as long as he was in charge. It is
interesting to note that when Nourbakhsh returned to the Central Bank in 1994,
one of his main policies was tackling the ‘obligatory facilities’ and
eventually succeeded in suspending it and legislated a mandatory 10% cut in it
for the third development plan.
Nourbakhsh’s second term as the governor
of the Central Bank came when Iran was under a catastrophic foreign currency
exchange (forex) debt, with Iranian economy tainted by a loss of credibility
at a time of economic globalization and when foreign investors in Iran were
faced with rising risk factors. Banking experts had asserted that the most
important factor leading to the forex debt was a lack of adequate information
and statistics relating to obtaining foreign exchange credits and when they
were to be repaid. The information and statistics existing in the country’s
various banks were inconsistent with that of the Central Bank of Iran. The
first step Nourbakhsh took was to bring together all this information and
statistics as a coherent whole, and more importantly, he succeeded in updating
them. By doing so, the precise amount of Iran’s forex debts and the time span
for repayment was ascertained. Furthermore, currency management policies were
implemented to address the debts to regulate repayment. As a direct result,
the first credit line was extended to Iran after three years, which in itself
had the knock-on effect of encouraging European insurance companies,
responsible for insuring official exports, to guarantee and warrant the export
of goods to Iran.
Implementing these policies and their
effective management were to save Iran once more in 1987, when the currency
revenue witnessed a drastic drop, and consequently difficulties were
experienced in meeting the forex dept repayment obligations.
Nourbakhsh’s third term as the governor
of the Central Bank of Iran coincided with the third development plan. The
most important steps undertaken by Nourbakhsh during this period can be
recounted as establishing a currency reserve account, implementing a uniform
currency exchange rate and the commencement of operation by private banks in
Iran. We must not forget his efforts and dedication in lowering the rate of
inflation and establishing a realistic currency exchange rate.
When Nourbakhsh re-entered the Central
Bank in 1994 the inflation rate was growing at an uncontrollable rate, peaking
at around 50% in 1996. Nourbakhsh managed to contain the inflation rate and
reduce it to 12% by 2001, while simultaneously implementing a uniform currency
exchange rate. Finally what can be said about Nourbakhsh is that his
familiarity with the economic workings of Iran and his intimate grasp of the
science of economics made him a man built for all seasons of Iran’s volatile
economical climate.