We are only in the third year of the Third Economic Development Plan and there is already talk about drawing up the fourth. This is a topic of hot debate in Iran’s economic circles, each of which have their own opinions on how the plan should look. But amongst all these analyses, one must be given extra weight, and that is the view of Senior Economist and Senior Advisor to the Management and Planning Organization (MPO), Dr. Bayazid Mardukhi. Mardukhi has recently been involved in drawing up "Iran’s Long-Term Economic Outlook" which will be the main source of the Fourth Development Plan—which he will also have an active role in the drafting. In his talks with Iran International this is what the expert had to say.

The talk of the "Fourth Plan" has invigorated the country’s never ending drive towards ‘development’. The experience of nine national construction and development plans and the skills accumulated over 50 years of planning will all come together in the drafting of this plan. Even though there are still two years left until the end the third plan, it is not too early to be thinking about the fourth. The third economic development plan wasn’t really a plan, in the true sense of the word, and it was actually a series of reforms that have been passed by Parliament to be implemented in various fields. It is not appropriate or even possible to impose a five-year limit on these reforms. It may not be even correct to name such a text a ‘plan’, as it could have been passed as a series of 10 to 20 separate laws that would guide the reform process advocated by the government of President Khatami. Some of these reforms have been achieved, to some extent, and others still need more.

It is widely agreed that we have lacked a document that would outline "Iran’s long-term economic Outlook" since the revolution. Last year the MPO was granted the opportunity to draft this document. The MPO utilized its own expertise and experience as well as calling on experts and academics nationwide to come together and draft this document, which encompasses the country’s economic, cultural, security and political concerns. The preparatory studies were conducted with the assistance of over 30 universities and research centers, who presented the results of their research to the MPO.

This Outlook has set its quantitative goals for the year 2015 and its qualitative goals look to a horizon of 2020. These dates have been selected as they have a sense of universality, and thus, will give us a base for comparison with other countries of the world. The 2015 Outlook has made the following forecasts for Iran’s economic situation: GDP will have an average annual growth rate of 8.6%; per capita income will increase by 7.2%; investment 10.9%; unemployment to drop to 7%; and inflation to 5%. Non-oil exports will total $31 billion while $26 billion of that will be made up of industrial products. Foreign direct investment is to be $6.3 billion in the last year of this period.

This Outlook will be the base from which the fourth plan will emerge. This will be first time a plan will follow its logical order in a constitutional framework. This Outlook will envisage an ideal future for Iran and the fourth plan will seek to actualize that future for a five-year period.

This Outlook has three main considerations, the first of which is conforming to the values of the Islamic Republic, which are laid down in its constitution; so first—and foremost—the Outlook is constitutional. The second consideration the Outlook addresses is the internal needs of Iran’s economy. The final consideration relates to regional and international relations. Iran has been interacting with the modern world for a century, but it cannot be said that this has been a two-way relationship. We are often considered the mere fuel-suppliers of the modern world, with only nominal non-oil exports in traditional goods (however recently a few industrial products have found their way to the list of Iran’s non-oil exports).

There has also been a "Strategy for Industrial Development" in the works, which has been pursed and compiled in parallel with "Iran’s Long-term Economic Outlook". However, the suggestions that the Strategy makes for the industrial development of the country must be translated into a five-year development plan and cannot be put into practice as a stand-alone document. The Outlook and the Strategy both address the macroeconomic situation of the country but were not in contact with one another and were compiled separately, however it is interesting to note that they have come to similar solutions. In the hierarchy of things the long-term Outlook arches over all other documents. The industrial Strategy is also a valuable document—compiled by senior economist Dr. Masoud Nili, for the Ministry of Industries and Mines—and must be given its due regard and implemented through the five-year plan.

This Outlook, which is published with the approval of the government, does not require Parliament’s further authorization. The finalization of the Outlook will make it and its supporting documents valuable references. It also has the additional effect of creating consensus between the various policy-making authorities of the country, by giving them a common vision and shared mentality for the socio-economic development of the country.

This Outlook aims to lead Iran towards an ideal society based on morals and religious values, legitimate freedoms and human rights. It will bring about a stable and secure Iran, developed and advanced in industry, science and technology unparalleled in the region. Society will be based on social justice and an all-encompassing welfare system that constantly betters the quality of life. The Iranian citizen will be active, proud and responsible. Iran will coordinate its engagement with the international community based on the principles of "wisdom, honor and expedience", while constantly pursuing its national interest and security.

The Outlook also makes an assessment of the current status of society, categorizing everything in to either capacities and advantages we enjoy, or deficiencies and problems we must address. Our advantages include our historical and cultural wealth, a unified while diverse people, geo-political and geo-economic positioning, natural resources such as hydrocarbons and metals, and an infrastructure built over 50 years of industrial development. Our problems include 2.5 million unemployed people, arid lands and an oil dependent economy; a low rate of GDP being invested, and an introverted economy that needs to open up.

To better utilize our advantages and address our problems 12 subjects have been identified. Any plan that will be drawn up for the next twenty years must address one of these points.

1. Continues and sustainable growth

2. Achieving a knowledge-based economy

3. Active interaction with the global economy

4. Promoting Competitiveness

5. Human security and social justice

6. National security

7. Improving the standard and quality of life

8. Environmental preservation

9. Cultural development

10. Reforming the methods of governance

11. Judicial reform and development

12. Domestic regional balance based on special management.

The topics that the fourth plan will be emphasizing will be international engagement, in the form of increasing trade (both imports and exports) as well as attracting FDI. However, it must be remembered that no matter how good a plan looks on paper, it will be useless unless it is implemented by the relevant authorities. A document like this has the quality of creating a nationwide consensus on development. If this Outlook dominates the mentality of all our officials and citizens, it will boost the development drive to unprecedented levels.