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Malaysia after
Mahathir
The leader who
built modern Malaysia is stepping down. Now, a new economic model is
needed. Can Abdullah Badawi provide it?
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On 31 October 2003, a
low-key ceremony took place on the fourth floor of a pastel-pink palace in the
new Malaysian capital of Putrajaya. In the privacy of his inner chambers,
Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad handed over his so-called job manual—a largely
symbolic binder of documents—to Abdullah Badawi, his deputy prime minister.
Sporting the drab, long-sleeved safari suits the two wear around the building
on any weekday, they shook hands and said their goodbyes. Then Mahathir
strolled across the marble floor, placed his thumb on the biomechanical
security lock on the front door, and left Malaysia in the care of its first
new Prime Minister in 22 years.
The transition had already effectively
happened. Since the 77-year old Mahathir—a former physician—tearfully
announced in June, 2002, that he wanted to quit, he has been slowly handing
his duties to Badawi. Indeed, last spring Mahathir took a two-month vacation,
leaving his deputy in charge as the SARS outbreak pummeled tourism and the war
in Iraq brought angry Malays into the streets. Badawi’s diplomatically phrased
formal objection to the Iraq war offended no one in the international
community while appeasing protesters and showing that the heir apparent
possessed a deft touch. "They are as much my people as they are Dr. Mahathir’s,"
Badawi told a U.S. official in late August.
In his long tenure, Mahathir clearly
healed much of what ailed Malaysia. When he rose to power in 1981, the country
still bore scars from violent race riots and a long fight against a stubborn
communist insurgency. Since then, it has become a model of prosperity, civil
order, and economic growth for Asia. Mahathir encouraged export-oriented
manufacturing to wean Malaysia from its dependence on crude oil, rubber, and
palm oil. His finance ministers and central bankers have kept the fiscal
deficit reasonably low. He built high-quality roads, a world-class phone
system, and the region’s best railroads. In 1980, Malaysia’s gross domestic
product was $12 billion. Last year, it was $210 billion, and per capita income
stood at $3,540, the third-highest in Southeast Asia after Brunei and
Singapore. Many analysts believe that "Mahathir created a nation; there is
real pride in the country."
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Many analysts believe that "Mahathir created a nation;
there is real pride in the country." |
There’s little doubt that Badawi will
present a far different public face to the world. Mahathir has earned a
reputation both as a fierce defender of Asia against the West and as a tough
political infighter at home. His successful prosecution of his deputy prime
minister and rival, Anwar Ibrahim, on charges of sodomy and corruption—despite
Anwar’s pleas of innocence—was the most glaring example. And he may be best
remembered by many Westerners for his fierce anti-American outbursts and
anti-Semitic statements. By contrast, the 63-year-old Badawi is known as a
consensus-builder, a skill he learned in eight years as Foreign Minister. He
is also the son and grandson of Islamic scholars and a student of Islam
himself, earning him the respect of Malaysia’s new breed of fundamentalist
Muslims, a growing political force. Badawi will have stronger Islamic
credentials than Mahathir, so he’ll be able to tone down his rhetoric.
As Malaysia is being handed over to
Badawi, on many levels the nation appears to be in good shape. The stock
exchange is up nearly 20% since January, and the economy is expected to hit
4.5% growth this year. Foreign investors have long liked the political
stability, good infrastructure, and relatively cheap skilled labor Malaysia
offers. In exchange, foreigners have agreed to honor laws that require them to
offer equity stakes in their enterprises to Bumiputras—a local term that
generally means ethnic Malay Muslims—often members of Mahathir’s party, the
United Malays National Organization (UMNO). While exceptions were made for
exporters in some industries and the party’s involvement was rarely overt, the
rules were understood and obeyed.
Badawi may have to be patient when it
comes to pushing Malaysia up the ladder. During the boom years, Mahathir
promoted a program called Vision 2020—a plan to transform Malaysia into a
developed nation by 2020. It was based on the assumption that heavy spending
on education, information technology, and other modern industries would do for
Malaysia’s 24 million people what similar programs have done for Japan and
Korea. Part of the business plan was the $4 billion "Multimedia Super
Corridor," centered around Cyberjaya, an office park tailored to high-tech
companies.
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The $2.9 billion
Petronas Twin Towers in Kuala Lumpur, which marry Islamic motifs with
the soaring lines of New York’s Chrysler Building, are the world’s
tallest skyscrapers. |
That was before China became a competing
industrial power. The government hails Cyberjaya as a success, but lately tech
investors have stayed away, forcing it to market itself as affordable office
space for low-tech call centers and back-office data processing. Malaysia’s
investment in education, meanwhile, will take at least a generation to bear
fruit. Badawi can get faster results by offering more incentives to foreign
investors and opening the economy and financial system further. The world has
changed, and Malaysia has been a bit complacent.
Nowhere are the problems more evident
than in Penang. Once the pillar of Malaysia’s electronics industry, the steamy
island in the Malacca Strait is hollowing out, with Seagate Technology,
Motorola, Solectron Technology, and other multinationals shifting production
elsewhere in Asia. Solectron, which makes equipment for Cisco Systems,
Hewlett-Packard, and others, has already transferred assembly of PCs, cell
phones, and routers for 10 of its clients to China. The company has kept some
more sophisticated operations, such as design work, in Penang, but it expects
to move that to China within two years. "All of us are quite concerned about
the change in leadership in the country, whether it’s going to lead to
positive or negative impact on this industry," says Joe Tang, a corporate
vice-president at Solectron in Penang. Tang wants Malaysia to follow the lead
of China, which has fostered the growth of local tech companies by wooing
foreign investors while also building up the local supply base.
Business leaders with ties to UMNO may
have even bigger worries if Badawi reins in outlays for the public-works
programs that have been Mahathir’s signature. Since 1991, Malaysia has spent
well over $15 billion on infrastructure projects such as the Kuala Lumpur
International Airport. The $2.4 billion facility, which was built to resemble
a cluster of Arabian tents, is designed to handle 25 million passengers a year
but will see just 16 million this year. Although the city’s old airport at
Subang was clearly overburdened, the new facility won’t likely reach full
capacity until 2011, estimates brokerage ING Financial Markets. The $2.9
billion Petronas Twin Towers in Kuala Lumpur, which marry Islamic motifs with
the soaring lines of New York’s Chrysler Building, are the world’s tallest
skyscrapers. But one tower remains one-third empty, say real estate agents.
And in the new capital, Putrajaya, built at a cost of $5.3 billion some 30
kilometers from central Kuala Lumpur, parking lots are landscaped like golf
courses, and domed government office buildings are modeled after mosques. The
city was built to relieve overcrowding in Kuala Lumpur, but foreign embassies
have mostly stayed in the old capital, and the web of new highways around
Putrajaya is empty much of the time.
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During the boom years, Mahathir promoted a program called Vision 2020—a
plan to transform Malaysia into a developed nation by 2020. |
Last year, the language of instruction
in math and science courses at government schools was switched from Malay to
English. Then a quota system in university entrance exams that gave Bumiputra
students an advantage was adjusted to give academic merit more weight.
Finally, on June 17, the law requiring foreign investors to have Bumiputra
partners was repealed. Foreigners may now own 100% of a Malaysian company in
most sectors.
The Bumiputra regulations aren’t the
only restrictions Badawi wants to remove. In March he vowed to "rectify" the
"excruciating" level of red tape at government agencies that regulate hotel
management and land transactions. The government is also preparing to issue
new licenses in the once closed-to-outsiders financial-services industry, says
Zeti Akhtar Aziz, governor of Bank Negara Malaysia, the central bank. "A lot
of deregulation is taking place," says Mohamad Ariff, executive director of
the independent Malaysian Institute of Economic Research.
Investors are delighted with the new
rules. "As outsiders, we know it isn’t going to be in our favor if an industry
is distorted through the industrial policy of a government," says Nicholas R.H.
Bloy, director of private equity fund Navis Management. In 2001, Navis
acquired a disposable-diaper factory in Malaysia from Houston-based Drypers
Corp. after Drypers sought bankruptcy protection. Now, Bloy is negotiating to
acquire two more Malaysian companies.
Badawi will take office at a time when
Malaysia, like the rest of Asia, is benefiting from a global economic
recovery. Gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 4.5% in the first
half, up from 2.6% during the same period last year. Manufacturing was the
largest contributor, growing 6.2%, mainly from exports of semiconductors and
household appliances. Some manufacturers have started exporting partially
assembled products to China, where they are completed at less well equipped,
more labor-intensive plants.
In the long run, that strategy may not
hold as more companies shift production to China. But it’s working now: The
inflow of foreign investment reached $1.46 billion from January to June, up
from $928 million during the same period last year.
But Malaysia needs to do more to prepare
for the challenge ahead. The economy has long been buoyed by oil-and-gas
production, which contributes 7% of GDP. You want to be investing in R&D and
education and skills for the time when oil exports run out.
Even the country’s troubled financial
system is getting its health back. Loans at Malaysia’s 10 full-service
banks—the product of a massive government-enforced consolidation of 54
financial institutions—grew 4% in the second quarter over the year-earlier
period.
Foreign reserves have risen to $38.6
billion, enough to cover more than seven months of imports, up from five
months in June, 2000.
With the stock market up sharply this
year, fund managers from Asia, Europe, and the U.S. are waking up.
Part of the attraction may be that a
new, more professional breed of manager is ready to take the helm at Malaysia
Inc. The old generation of UMNO-linked CEOs often owned controlling stakes in
their companies and gave short shrift to the needs of minority shareholders,
say Malaysian economists and Western diplomats.
But new CEOs run many restructured UMNO-linked
corporations. The companies compensate their managers with stock options,
while before the crisis they received loans and substantial equity stakes. And
they advertise themselves as managed by professionals without the interference
of controlling shareholders. "These are quite early days, but I call it
Malaysia Inc. II," says Nazir Razak, CEO of Commerce International Merchant
Bankers, one of Malaysia’s biggest financial institutions.
Regardless of how well the economy does,
Badawi will have to confront the rising tide of terrorism in Southeast Asia.
And for that, he has already earned relatively high marks from Western
diplomats, who praise Malaysia for providing a more secure environment for
American and Australian interests than Thailand or Indonesia.
In his role as Home Minister, Badawi
signed "detention orders" to hold people indefinitely—about 100 were under
arrest at last count—without trial or formal charges under Malaysia’s Internal
Security Act.
There’s little doubt that the handover
of power will be smooth at first. But Badawi will come under enormous pressure
to prove himself quickly in the political arena.
One of his first challenges will be to
ensure victory for UMNO in elections expected next spring. "If he does well,
he can come up with his own policies, programs, and agenda," says a prominent
Malaysian economist. "Only after the elections can he prove he’s not living
under Mahathir’s shadow." When that happens, though, the answers to Badawi’s
real challenges—remaking the business culture, reorienting the economy—surely
won’t be found in the ceremonial job manual that Mahathir has left in his
hands. Only then will Malaysia—and the world—know whether Badawi is truly up
to the task of taking over where the good doctor left off. |