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January 2006, No. 38


Oil & Gas

Energy Analysis at Tehran Conference

The country aims at increasing its crude oil production capacity to 5.23 million barrels per day, produce 700 million cu. m. natural gas per day, and increase production of petrochemicals to $15 billion a year by the end of the Fourth Economic Development Plan.

Ministry of Oil caretaker, Vaziri Hamaneh, addressed an international conference in Tehran themed ‘Global Convergence, New Energy Paradigms’, during which he chided major oil consuming countries for levying high taxes on oil and its derivatives, which makes their profits even higher than oil producing countries. When asked whether his criticism of consuming countries is a warning by the second biggest oil producing in OPEC to consumer countries to lower taxes, he said, "I also said this in the latest OPEC conference. In fact, their tax revenues are much higher than revenues earned by oil exporting countries."

With regard to OPEC’s cooperation with oil markets he said, "Naturally, producers and consumers should join hand, but every group must also support their own respective interests." Asked about critics who claim OPEC is not cooperating in lower oil prices, he noted, "If you look at speeches made by oil ministers of various countries carefully, you’d see that they say OPEC is not pumping enough oil. However, this is not true and at present, there is two million barrels surplus oil in the markets."

When a reporter asked about Hamaneh’s interest in attracting foreign investment, he said, "We naturally welcome foreign investments as we did in the past, but we want suitable prices and conditions."

Supporting High Oil Prices: The main stance taken by Hamaneh during his first interview after he was introduced as candidate for Ministry of Oil portfolio, was about Iran’s favorable oil price at international markets. He stated that $50 per barrel is a suitable price adding, "We believe the current $50 per barrel price is quite suitable and we are interested in continuation of the current prices."

Referring to projections about oil price hitting $100 per barrel, he noted, "These are predictions based on market demand and production capacities of various countries. Perhaps they enjoy scientific basis, but they are still mere forecasts." Hamaneh, however, declined to comment about a possible OPEC decision during the organization’s next meeting and said participants will certainly talk about the next secretary general.

He also stated that Iran is sure to encourage foreign companies to invest in its oil industry. When he was leaving conference venue at the International Conference Hall of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), a reporter asked him whether Iran is planning to sign new buyback contracts. He said, "I don’t know. I really don’t know." Of course, he had slammed that type of contracts only a few minutes earlier and had noted that the time is past for those deals.

Global Oil Demand by 2020: Seyed Mehdi Hosseini, former Deputy Managing Director of the National Iranian Oil Company for Development Affairs was among the main supporters of buyback deals when Zanganeh was Minister of Oil. He was retired when the new government took office and was appointed member of board of directors of SADRA Company a few days later. Addressing the international oil and gas conference, Hosseini said, "International oil market needs support from national oil companies because such companies have good contacts inside the government."

Hosseini is not a governmental official anymore, but member of board of directors of a major company which has soared in the past eight years. He added, "Some problems including excessive use of oil reservoirs and high costs of exploration and development have jeopardized oil and production hike in the long run."

The official added that global inattention to investment and creation of new capacities, inattention to economic growth in developing countries such as India and China, lack of cooperation between producers and consumers as well as characteristics of the current market are among major problems which have made the market unsafe for consumers.

He also touched upon increasing oil and gas demand, saying, "The United States accounts for 43% of total consumption of oil and its products. China is faring similarly and total energy consumption in the world has increased 3.4%."

Former Deputy Managing Director of National Iranian Oil Company said OPEC will not succeed in realizing its goal of doubling production by 2020 and in that case, the market will be facing serious fluctuations. "Upstream production costs in the future can lead to more problems. OPEC needs at least $42 billion in investment to produce about 58 million barrels oil per day by 2020. We know that OPEC cannot do this single-handedly and needs support from international companies," he noted.

Hosseini stated that 80% of buyback deals were signed for development of oil fields. Iran’s gas production will hit 400 million cu. m. per year, to catch up with or even surpass Qatar.

OPEC Is Conservative: The 10th international conference of Institute for International Energy Studies (IIES) was of lower quality compared to the ninth conference. However, the event is still among important annual conferences sponsored by the Iranian Ministry of Oil. Masoud Nili, a Professor of Economics at Sharif University of Technology addressed the conference saying, "Since OPEC members know that prices are not sensitive to small changes in their output, they feel free to decide about their individual production quotas."

Regarding OPEC quotas, he noted that determining quotas for members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and not observing those quotas by individual member countries has always been a problem and has led to great earnings for the organization and small members. "Earning through disregarding quotas accounts for about 35% of their total revenues," he said. Nili believes that OPEC is behaving conservatively, saying, "OPEC has always reacted conservatively to increase in international oil prices."

Consumer Countries’ Revenues Higher than Producers: The main point made by the fourth speaker of the international oil conference was criticism of oil consumer countries. Ministry of Oil caretaker, Kazem Vaziri Hamaneh said, "Revenues of major oil consumer countries are much higher than producer states."

It seems that due attention has not been paid to cooperation between oil consumers and producers in the past decades, but now increasing attention is being paid to this issue so that both sides know that that cooperation can solve many problems in the oil markets.

Hamaneh also explained about Iran’s goals for meeting rising demand in the oil market. He said the country aims at increasing its crude oil production capacity to 5.23 million barrels per day, produce 700 million cu. m. natural gas per day, and increase production of petrochemicals to $15 billion a year by the end of the Fourth Economic Development Plan. "Despite obstructionism by the United States, the Iranian Ministry of Oil is planning to attain its deserved position in the oil market through cooperation of friendly countries," he noted.

The Ministry of Oil caretaker also stated that Iran is expected to attract $70 billion in investments by the end of the Fourth Economic Development Plan and boost its refining capacity to one million barrels per day. Hamaneh said that lack of timely investment in upstream sector is the main barrier which will limit future oil supply, adding, "Increased oil prices, which are mainly due to limitations in upstream and downstream oil sectors prove the untoward effects of inadequate investment level after a period of delay."

Diplomatic Stance of Deputy Foreign Minister: Deputy Foreign Minister for Parliamentary Affairs also addressed the audience, saying, "The new government looks upon oil and gas relations with other governments in such a way as to protect bilateral interests."

Referring to hegemonic past relations between producer and consumer countries during the first half of the 20th century, he added that consumer countries that are the industrial and semi-industrial states of today, influenced the sovereign rights of producer countries in all stages of oil production from oil extraction to oil sales. He noted that Iran will continue constructive cooperation with its customers and will also pursue its nuclear program because development of nuclear energy will reduce oil consumption both in producer and consumer countries.

 

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