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Energy Analysis at Tehran Conference

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The country aims at increasing its crude oil
production capacity to 5.23 million barrels per day, produce 700 million
cu. m. natural gas per day, and increase production of petrochemicals to
$15 billion a year by the end of the Fourth Economic Development Plan. |
Ministry of Oil caretaker, Vaziri
Hamaneh, addressed an international conference in Tehran themed ‘Global
Convergence, New Energy Paradigms’, during which he chided major oil consuming
countries for levying high taxes on oil and its derivatives, which makes their
profits even higher than oil producing countries. When asked whether his
criticism of consuming countries is a warning by the second biggest oil
producing in OPEC to consumer countries to lower taxes, he said, "I also said
this in the latest OPEC conference. In fact, their tax revenues are much
higher than revenues earned by oil exporting countries."
With regard to OPEC’s cooperation with
oil markets he said, "Naturally, producers and consumers should join hand, but
every group must also support their own respective interests." Asked about
critics who claim OPEC is not cooperating in lower oil prices, he noted, "If
you look at speeches made by oil ministers of various countries carefully,
you’d see that they say OPEC is not pumping enough oil. However, this is not
true and at present, there is two million barrels surplus oil in the markets."
When a reporter asked about Hamaneh’s
interest in attracting foreign investment, he said, "We naturally welcome
foreign investments as we did in the past, but we want suitable prices and
conditions."
Supporting High
Oil Prices:
The main stance taken by
Hamaneh during his first interview after he was introduced as candidate for
Ministry of Oil portfolio, was about Iran’s favorable oil price at
international markets. He stated that $50 per barrel is a suitable price
adding, "We believe the current $50 per barrel price is quite suitable and we
are interested in continuation of the current prices."
Referring to projections about oil price
hitting $100 per barrel, he noted, "These are predictions based on market
demand and production capacities of various countries. Perhaps they enjoy
scientific basis, but they are still mere forecasts." Hamaneh, however,
declined to comment about a possible OPEC decision during the organization’s
next meeting and said participants will certainly talk about the next
secretary general.
He also stated that Iran is sure to
encourage foreign companies to invest in its oil industry. When he was leaving
conference venue at the International Conference Hall of the Islamic Republic
of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), a reporter asked him whether Iran is planning to
sign new buyback contracts. He said, "I don’t know. I really don’t know." Of
course, he had slammed that type of contracts only a few minutes earlier and
had noted that the time is past for those deals.
Global Oil
Demand by 2020:
Seyed Mehdi Hosseini, former Deputy Managing Director of the National Iranian
Oil Company for Development Affairs was among the main supporters of buyback
deals when Zanganeh was Minister of Oil. He was retired when the new
government took office and was appointed member of board of directors of SADRA
Company a few days later. Addressing the international oil and gas conference,
Hosseini said, "International oil market needs support from national oil
companies because such companies have good contacts inside the government."
Hosseini is not a governmental official
anymore, but member of board of directors of a major company which has soared
in the past eight years. He added, "Some problems including excessive use of
oil reservoirs and high costs of exploration and development have jeopardized
oil and production hike in the long run."
The official added that global
inattention to investment and creation of new capacities, inattention to
economic growth in developing countries such as India and China, lack of
cooperation between producers and consumers as well as characteristics of the
current market are among major problems which have made the market unsafe for
consumers.
He also touched upon increasing oil and
gas demand, saying, "The United States accounts for 43% of total consumption
of oil and its products. China is faring similarly and total energy
consumption in the world has increased 3.4%."
Former Deputy Managing Director of
National Iranian Oil Company said OPEC will not succeed in realizing its goal
of doubling production by 2020 and in that case, the market will be facing
serious fluctuations. "Upstream production costs in the future can lead to
more problems. OPEC needs at least $42 billion in investment to produce about
58 million barrels oil per day by 2020. We know that OPEC cannot do this
single-handedly and needs support from international companies," he noted.
Hosseini stated that 80% of buyback
deals were signed for development of oil fields. Iran’s gas production will
hit 400 million cu. m. per year, to catch up with or even surpass Qatar.
OPEC Is
Conservative:
The 10th international
conference of Institute for International Energy Studies (IIES) was of lower
quality compared to the ninth conference. However, the event is still among
important annual conferences sponsored by the Iranian Ministry of Oil. Masoud
Nili, a Professor of Economics at Sharif University of Technology addressed
the conference saying, "Since OPEC members know that prices are not sensitive
to small changes in their output, they feel free to decide about their
individual production quotas."
Regarding OPEC
quotas, he noted that determining quotas for members of the Organization of
Petroleum Exporting Countries and not observing those quotas by individual
member countries has always been a problem and has led to great earnings for
the organization and small members. "Earning through disregarding quotas
accounts for about 35% of their total revenues," he said. Nili believes that
OPEC is behaving conservatively, saying, "OPEC has always reacted
conservatively to increase in international oil prices."
Consumer
Countries’ Revenues Higher than Producers:
The main point made by
the fourth speaker of the international oil conference was criticism of oil
consumer countries. Ministry of Oil caretaker, Kazem Vaziri Hamaneh said,
"Revenues of major oil consumer countries are much higher than producer
states."
It seems that due attention has not been
paid to cooperation between oil consumers and producers in the past decades,
but now increasing attention is being paid to this issue so that both sides
know that that cooperation can solve many problems in the oil markets.
Hamaneh also explained about Iran’s
goals for meeting rising demand in the oil market. He said the country aims at
increasing its crude oil production capacity to 5.23 million barrels per day,
produce 700 million cu. m. natural gas per day, and increase production of
petrochemicals to $15 billion a year by the end of the Fourth Economic
Development Plan. "Despite obstructionism by the United States, the Iranian
Ministry of Oil is planning to attain its deserved position in the oil market
through cooperation of friendly countries," he noted.
The Ministry of Oil caretaker also
stated that Iran is expected to attract $70 billion in investments by the end
of the Fourth Economic Development Plan and boost its refining capacity to one
million barrels per day. Hamaneh said that lack of timely investment in
upstream sector is the main barrier which will limit future oil supply,
adding, "Increased oil prices, which are mainly due to limitations in upstream
and downstream oil sectors prove the untoward effects of inadequate investment
level after a period of delay."
Diplomatic
Stance of Deputy Foreign Minister:
Deputy Foreign Minister
for Parliamentary Affairs also addressed the audience, saying, "The new
government looks upon oil and gas relations with other governments in such a
way as to protect bilateral interests."
Referring to
hegemonic past relations between producer and consumer countries during the
first half of the 20th century, he added that consumer countries that are the
industrial and semi-industrial states of today, influenced the sovereign
rights of producer countries in all stages of oil production from oil
extraction to oil sales. He noted that Iran will continue constructive
cooperation with its customers and will also pursue its nuclear program
because development of nuclear energy will reduce oil consumption both in
producer and consumer countries. |