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Iran’s Fluctuating Relationship with the West
Relations between Iran and the European
countries including Germany represent a contradiction from the viewpoint of
Iranians. The reason is that Iranian and European leaders are constantly
talking about the necessity of improving and expanding relations while those
relations have never been free from tension or, at least, complaints, over the
past 26 years.
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The current relationship between the United States and
Europe is a follow-up of the same ties which were set up after the war
against the Soviet Union |
The contradiction becomes even more
pronounced when Iran intends to encourage Europe for cooperation in those
fields prohibited by the United States and Europeans, on the other hand, try
to use Iran as leverage against the US. The contradiction seen by Iranians in
relations with Europe is, in fact, not a real contradiction, but the normal
situation of Iran’s relations with the west as a whole. What is the nature of
this relationship which has made outward manifestations to be different from
practical consequences?
Two Levels of
Relationship:
Relations between countries are basically a function of geostrategic and
geopolitical realities. Geostrategy is a collection of requirements imposed on
countries by their political geographies. Territorial relationships and deep
cultural ties, inevitably force counties into friendly relations. For example,
like it or not, Iran has to give priority to such countries as Iraq,
Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkey, Persian Gulf states as well as the republics of
Central Asian and Caucasus in its foreign policy. This priority arises from
having natural borders with those countries.
Relationship with other countries such
as Syria and Lebanon, which lack a common border with Iran, emanates from
geostrategic necessities, that is, it is a form of ideological propinquity,
which leads to cultural and political commonalties. Relations based on
geostrategy, even if in a hostile situation, are profound and serious as well
as compulsory and nonselective.
Another form of relationship is
relationship based on geopolitics. Geopolitical relationship is not
necessarily a function of geographical requirements, but having common
strategic goals, brings countries voluntarily close to one another.
Relationship between the United States, on the one hand, and Europe, Japan,
China and the Middle East, on the other hand, are salient examples. The United
States fought with Japan, Germany and Italy about 60 years ago without having
territorial or border disputes with those countries. During the same war
(World War II), the United States supported the former Union of Soviet
Socialist Republics against German onslaught without having the least
ideological or cultural ties or common economic interests with that country.
After the war, relationship between the United States and the Union of Soviet
Socialist Republics became tense while relationships with Germany, Italy and
Japan improved. Although decisions made by the United States before and after
the war were functions of necessities of global division of power, adopting
two different courses was quite voluntary and free from territorial concerns.
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Relations between countries are basically a function of
geostrategic and geopolitical realities. Geostrategy is a collection of
requirements imposed on countries by their political geographies. |
The current relationship between the
United States and Europe is a follow-up of the same ties which were set up
after the war against the Soviet Union. Elimination of the Soviet Union from
global power scene dampened motives for political and military relationship,
but did not obliterate it altogether. However, a new factor, namely economy,
was added to the equation and gave a new form to internal relationship in the
west. The strength of new bond was such that after implosion of the former
Soviet Union and dissolution of Warsaw Pact, its rival, the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization (NATO), was not dismantled, but new missions were defined
for it. Relationship of the west with other parts of the world is still a
function of transatlantic relationship between the United States and Europe.
Economic Component of Relationship:
Economic relations in
the West have been large-scale and profound from a long time ago. However,
from the beginning of the 1990s, when western countries’ concern about the
former-Soviet Union was reduced and, simultaneously, China decreased its
political and military rivalry with the West through emphasizing economic
reforms, economy gained more significance in US-Europe ties and consequently,
the same happened to relationships with other countries. Now, any decision in
the fields of domestic and foreign policy of countries is mainly oriented
toward economic achievements. The United States and Europe, which are number
one and number two producers and consumers in the world, are more dependent on
each other than other countries.
West’s
Relationship with Iran:
The West’s Middle East policy and Europe’s Iran policy were shaped within the
frame of geo-strategic and geopolitical necessities as well as status of
economy in international relations. Iran, due to nature of its products, which
mainly comprise oil and its products followed by raw materials, needs
industrial markets (United States, Europe, East Asia, and Russia) for selling
those products. In the absence of direct relationship with the United States
and since Russia does not need Iran’s oil, Iran’s economic relations are now
limited to Europe and East Asia.
Iran registered a total of $39 billion
exports last year with crude oil accounting for 80% of that figure followed by
oil products, fruits, dried nuts, and carpets. Major importers of the said
products included Japan (18.4%), China (9.7%), Italy (6%), South Africa
(5.8%), South Korea (5.4%), Taiwan (4.6%), Turkey (4.4%), and the Netherlands
(4%). Major European countries, that is, England, Germany, and France, are not
among the eight countries that are primary destinations for 60% of Iran’s
exports. The opposite is true about imports. Iran imported a total of $31.5
billion of goods and services from other countries last year with major
exporters being Germany (12.8%), France (8.3%), Italy (7.7%), China (7.2%),
the United Arab Emirates (7.2%), South Korea (6.1%), and Russia (5.4%).
Geopolitical implications of that kind
of economic relationship is that, firstly, total volume of trade between
western countries and Iran is negligible compared to what is traded between
those countries and the United States, and secondly, for European countries,
Iran is mainly a destination for industrial exports and an origin for raw
materials imports. At the same time, in economic exchanges between Europe and
the United States, the latter has always been the first or second trade
partner for European countries with direction of imports and exports being
quite opposite to that between Iran and Europe. US foreign trade is mainly
between that country and Canada, Mexico, Europe, and China. Although Germany
and France are not among five top trade partners of the United States, the
type of goods and products that Germany exports to and imports from the United
States has given strategic depth to their relationship. The United States
exports $795 billion goods and services to the rest of the world per year,
most of which goes to the industrial countries. Germany, which is the biggest
economic power in Europe, imports 7% of its modern technological requirements
from the United States while the United States is a market for 8.8% of
Germany’s exports, which are mainly medium industries lacking extricate
technologies.
Conclusion:
Under the said circumstances, elections in Germany have led to failure of
Social Democratic Party and a fragile triumph for conservatives. Since none of
the two major German parties can establish a government, a major coalition has
been worked out between them and Angel Merkel, leader of Christian Democratic
Party, is to replace Gerhard Schroeder and take the helm as chancellor of
Germany. Merkel is closer to the United States and its leaders in terms of
party and personal interests, but due to the said considerations, a government
change in Germany will not seriously affect Berlin’s relationships with the
rest of Europe and the United States in an immediate and sudden manner. The
reason is that relationship between the two blocs, including between Germany
and the United States is based on a rationality which has been derived from
geopolitical realities. When Schroeder was German chancellor, Merkel slammed
some of his policies including his Middle East policy. She believed that
Germany should not send troops to Iraq, but there is also no need for German
leaders to criticize United States presence in Iraq.
Merkel has not
made outright remarks about Iran as yet, but judging from her positions on
developments in Iraq, it seems that she will be more in line with the United
States’ policy on Iran and, from now on, negotiations between Iran and Europe
will take a more difficult turn. |
