"Prosperity of stockmarket depends on
economic conditions so that bourse is a place where stocks of economic
corporations are being sold. At the same time, if the economy flourishes, the
stockmarket would follow suit. As a result corporations will benefit from that
situation, the value of their stocks increase, demand for their stocks shots
up, and finally, the number of transactions rise," he said.
Pazhouyan stated that under stagnant
economic conditions, companies lose profits and nobody will be willing to buy
their stocks. "These are realities of every stockmarket. At the same time, the
capital market is possible to experience spurious prosperity when the value of
stocks rise and this is called a bubble. After a while, however, the
stockmarket becomes stagnant," he opined.
The only way out of stagnation for the
stockmarket, is strong economic prosperity and bringing stock value close to
their real value. The recent boom in stockmarket was spurious because our
economy is not experiencing overall prosperity.
Any prosperity in bourse has been
consequence of activities of state-run companies and the private sector has
not been active in the stockmarket. Therefore, we must not expect prosperity
in the market as profits have not been high and no new investment has been
made. Now that the nuclear energy hassle has overshadowed other issues,
stagnation in bourse may seem natural. However, in case of real economic
prosperity, this problem will be overcome. Inefficient economic management
over the past 18 months is a source for current crisis in the stockmarket.
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Dr. A. Hashi,
Trusted auditor of the stockmarket |
Abbas Hashi, trusted auditor of the
stockmarket also noted that people’s presence in stockmarket is more
significant because they can buy companies’ stocks and any economic
development will be reverberated in bourse. Hashi also noted that that another
reason for the current situation was disharmony between Majlis and the
government, adding, "During those months, Majlis and government were at
loggerheads and MPs tried to impeach every single minister. After presidential
elections, economic activities in the country have come to relative
standstill."
The Faculty Member of Shahid Beheshti
University stated that stockmarket has an index which works like an alarm to
indicate negative consequences of political decisions on the stockmarket. He
added that some problems have been carried over from the previous to the
current government. "On the other hand, the new government has not specified
its economic plans and programs and this has increased distrust in future
prospects of domestic economy."
When asked about last month’s
developments in Tehran Stock Exchange, Hashi stated that instead of purchasing
stocks and warming up the market, quasi-governmental entities are selling
their stocks and then underwrite new stocks as banking institutes. This shows
that there is not adequate supervision over quasi-governmental entities.
The trusted auditor of Tehran Stock
Exchange said negative developments, weakness of the previous government and
problems faced by the new government as other factors which have lowered
bourse index.
Asked about positions taken by European
and American companies on recent remarks of the Iranian President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad and their possible effects on the stockmarket, he noted that Iran
has also lived with sanctions and threats and current problems are not due to
foreign factors. "The problem is that we have done nothing to gain people’s
trust inside the country," he said.
|
During the past two years we claimed that our
stockmarket is the most profitable in the world, but we are actually
among the worst markets with the lowest growth in investment. |
Hashi noted that major stockholders and
investment companies are the main actors in the stockmarket. Ordinary people
follow suit with major stockholders. As long as people do not trust the
stockmarket no dramatic change will happen. People take their money elsewhere
because they see that quasi-governmental entities are selling stocks instead
of purchasing them.
Meanwhile, Mehdi Sahraeian, an
economist, explained about economic factors affecting the stockmarket, saying,
"When national production is booming, bourse index will take a positive
upturn. However, when national production is negative or stagnant, we cannot
expect the index to go up."
The government has frozen all credits
for about nine months. Under these conditions, all developmental credits have
been frozen and production has fallen drastically. Due to lack of economic
prosperity, the stockmarket is also stagnant. Companies are currently unable
to come up with a positive balance sheet in the bourse and this is due to
unfavorable economic conditions.
As long as the government has not
adopted expansionary polices and production sectors remain stagnant, similar
stagnation in stockmarket is natural because exchange of goods and services
will be affected by that stagnation.
The economist said no miracle could be
anticipated for prosperity of the bourse if the current policies continue.
Under conditions when developmental plans have been suspended for nine months
and it took four months before the Economy Council convened its session.
Therefore, economy is practically in a state of suspension. Therefore, we
cannot expect prosperity in the stockmarket.
Iraj Akbariyeh advisor to minister of
industries and mines for companies’ affairs noted that confidence building and
making domestic economic atmosphere more transparent will play an effective
role in increasing bourse indexes. He continued by saying that the government
is finalizing budget circular and when government’s policy is made clear by
that circular, the situation in stockmarket will become more transparent.
We must wait and see what policy will be
adopted by the government with regard to domestic and foreign affairs as well
as exports. Solving domestic problems and reaching a positive result with
regard to Iran’s nuclear dossier in the November session of Board of Governors
of International Atomic Energy Agency will greatly help in this regard. At
present, there are many concerns in this regard. Of course, politicians will
do their best to keep the stockmarket calm.
Akbariyeh noted that most reduction in
stock value in industries and mines sector pertained to investment companies.
At present, more than 65% of companies on the stockmarket belong to government
and government-affiliated bodies including investment companies, banks, Social
Security Organization and pension funds and directors of those companies are
duty-bound to preserve their property. The value of industrial companies’
stocks has fallen by about 30% over the past four months. "This market is a
cause of discredit," he opined.
Behrouz Shahdaei, a capital market
analyst, noted that stockmarket index is now four-digit, adding, Experts have
expressed various viewpoints on the current crisis in the stockmarket, but
none of their views has thus far been carried out. The only proposal which has
been implemented is shortening time for transactions, which was carried out
incompletely. The results should be announced by the decision-making
authorities at the highest level.
The problem with stockmarket is lack of
security; as long as that problem has not been solved we must not expect any
improvement in the market. Some $200 billion of Iranian capital has been
invested in Persian Gulf states. Why has that capital left the country? At
present, the main problem with the stockmarket is lack of investment. During
the past two years we claimed that our stockmarket is the most profitable in
the world, but we are actually among the worst markets with the lowest growth
in investment.
Bahman Arman, an economist, also stated
that certain factors have brought economic activities inside the country to a
practical standstill. A major part of developmental and industrial activities
has thus far been carried out through foreign finance. That trend, however,
has been facing problems over the past few years and the problems are still in
place because the Guardian Council believes that foreign finance involves
usury and Majlis has rejected it. The issue is currently being reviewed by the
Expediency Council.
The economist added that the Expediency
Council has announced that it will not look into the finance case unless the
government asks for it and the government has not asked the Council to take up
the issue. Many projects are in limbo due to lack of a decision on that issue.
This has had significant outcomes for the stockmarket.
Arman also noted that board of trustees
of Oil Stabilization Fund has not convened its session yet because two members
have not been introduced by the president and opined that this is another
reason behind current stagnation in the stockmarket.
"Therefore, no credits have been
allocated to industrial plans in the private sector through the Oil
Stabilization Fund. Of course, the Central Bank of Iran does not need to wait
for a session of board of trustees to allocate the said credits and should
wait for a bylaw to be drawn up by the government. Not only has the bylaw not
been prepared yet, but Management and Plan Organization has also increased the
profit rate in deprived regions through a bylaw and has also increased rate of
delay in repayment of facilities to 12%. All these factors are instrumental in
insecurity of capital market, especially the stockmarket," he concluded.