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The first step toward Iran’s full membership at the
World Trade Organization was taken by accepting Iran’s membership
request at an organization which controls over 98% of the world economy
with 149 member countries. |
The first step toward Iran’s full
membership at the World Trade Organization was taken by accepting Iran’s
membership request at an organization which controls over 98% of the world
economy with 149 member countries.
For a powerful presence in global trade
two trends should be followed in parallel. Firstly, Ministry of Commerce as
representative of the Iranian government and the negotiating team should
compile Iran’s trade regime in cooperation with all ministries and
organizations within frame of WTO’s regulations. It should then be translated
and presented to a working group, which will be established by the end of
2005, and will probably comprise 10 volunteer member countries with the
highest level of trade ties with Iran. We must try to get as much privileges
as possible during bilateral and multilateral negotiations that will follow
and also give certain concessions.
China, which recently joined the world
body, will most likely be among the working group to delve into Iran’s
membership and will call for privileges (if we have preceded China to the
organization, we could have asked for privileges). Anyway, expertise and
capabilities of negotiating team will play a crucial role in this regard.
The second and more important trend
involves Iranian corporations and organizations which form the main factor
determining Iran’s success in global competition. The more those organizations
and corporations enjoy good management as well as long-term strategies in
addition to modern management, international marketing and development
capabilities and the more their readiness for engaging in world-class
competition; the more successful will be our negotiating team.
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It seems that the membership process will bear fruit
over 3-7 years. That is, inefficient economic organizations will have a
maximum of 7 years to choose whether they want to survive or be phased
out due to inability to compete with foreign counterparts. |
Now, after accepting Iran’s membership
request, the only membership applicant is Syria, which has thus far failed to
get consensus of member countries. Some 28 countries including Iran should be
recognized as qualified for membership through negotiations. Also, 12
countries including Vatican, Equatorial Guinea, Sao Tome and Principe have not
yet handed in a request for membership.
The main question is to what extent Iran
is ready to join the World Trade Organization? Despite sporadic efforts made
in various parts of the country, which resulted in an economic growth rate of
about 6% over the past 3 years (due to unprecedented hike in oil price),
figures indicate slow pace of Iran’s national economy toward
internationalization.
The main cause for underdevelopment is
state control over more than 75% of economy. The government is both client and
contractor; both seller and buyer; both supervisor and economic agent. Iran’s
economy has not been engaged even in a mild domestic competition let alone
fierce international rivalry. Our per capita production is one-tenth the
global average (Iran’s per capita production stands at about $3,000, while the
figure for the United States is about $39,000). This means 10 Iranians produce
as much as one person according to global standards. Per capita figure for
research and development in our country is $9 while it is 700-950 dollars in
industrial countries. Has management of apparently privatized companies (such
as Social Security Organization and State Pension Organization) been really
privatized during past two years when privatization drive has taken on more
speed? A liberalized economic system requires an open political and social
atmosphere; that is, compliance with supply and demand principle both in
economic and political spheres.
Another major challenge facing the
country with regard to joining the World Trade Organization is backwardness of
the governmental banks whose traditional and inefficient structures as well as
working in an unrivaled environment through heavy interests rates (up to 26)%
as compared to 2-3% interest rate considered by their foreign counterparts,
has practically rendered them incapable of competing with professional
international banks that are efficiently managing liquidity in industrial and
developed countries. It is noteworthy that Germany’s Deutsche Bank is getting
ready to render services to more than one billion customers as of 2008.
The 20-year development outlook plan has
projected successful interaction with global economy by making Iran top
regional power while the Fourth Economic Development Plan has projected an
annual growth rate of 8%, 2.5% of which should be realized through
productivity rate.
Low productivity rate (of human
resources, capital and equipment) which is mainly attributable to state-run
management and lack of incentives among civil servants, is one of the most
important challenges whose solution should be found through suitable,
scientific ways. Massive state bureaucracy of a government, which is still
facing budget shortage and high inflation despite unexpected leap in oil
revenues and collected tax, has faced the Iranian economy with a crisis of
efficiency, which is constantly spiraling up.
The overt unemployment rate stands at
about 15% and unemployment crisis is still dealing blows to the ailing
domestic economy (China, with a population of 1.36 billion enjoys an
unemployment rate of zero and negative inflation).
The 20-year development outlook plan
will not automatically guide the country toward expected success and progress;
we also need to come up with trade, industrial, agricultural as well as
service strategies for many corporations.
Are our assembly industries capable of
competing at an international level? Do we enjoy comparative advantages in all
industries including steel, automobile, cement, textile, and home appliances?
Do we have to spend all limited resources of the country on those industries
because they have created jobs?
We export Pride sedans to Syrian and
sell them 3 million tomans there, while the same car is sold 6.5 million
tomans inside the country. In fact, domestic customer pays the cost of lack of
competition in the country. Iran’s membership at the World Trade Organization
will make all these fields transparent.
It seems that the membership process
will bear fruit over 3-7 years. That is, inefficient economic organizations
will have a maximum of 7 years to choose whether they want to survive or be
phased out due to inability to compete with foreign counterparts. They have to
discard traditional, inefficient structures and replace them with
knowledge-based economy founded on modern science and experiences. Otherwise,
membership at the World Trade Organization will only mean opening our doors to
import of various foreign goods and creating jobs for the youth of Europe,
Southeast Asia and so on by spending our petrodollars.