|
|
| |
|
|
|
May 2006, No. 40 |
|
|
|
Global Trade |
|
|
From Global
Trade to
Global Integration |
 |
|
Trade, technology transfer and foreign direct investment
have lost their independent identities as three main elements of
globalization and promotion of international production and are now
closely interrelated. |
During the past two centuries and
following the Industrial Revolution in England, expansion of global production
and trade and acceleration of global economic growth has been intertwined with
international developments. This phenomenon is a result of two-way effects and
bilateral interactions between growth and international integration. Bigger
markets led to specialization of production and new system of division of
labor emerged with new facilities for learning and innovation. The result was
technological changes including reduced cost of transportation and
communications as well as integration of international markets.
The main political feature of this
period in the field of global exchanges was based on a free trade approach.
Afterwards, other European countries, Japan and the United States, through an
approach which was a combination of protectionism and economic freedom, aimed
at strengthening industrial bases and boosting commercial influence in
international markets and gradually provided grounds for establishment and
empowerment of economic globalization process as well as expansion of exchange
of goods, capital and knowledge with suitable characteristics conforming to
exigencies of time. From a historical viewpoint, the world has been witnessing
three waves of globalization since the second half of the 19th century, each
of which has enjoyed its special industrial development attitudes:
The first wave of globalization
(1870-1910) was characterized by new division in the field of production and
trade at the level of countries producing industrial goods and countries
producing and supplying raw materials. The main factors propelling this wave
were liberalization of trade exchanges in Europe, existence of monetary
institutions, free flow of migratory manpower, on the one hand, and reduced
cost of transportation along with development of railroad and sea transport,
on the other hand. In that period, proportion of trade to global production
increased from about 10 percent in 1870 to about 18 percent in 1914 and almost
doubled. During those years, growth of global exports (at annual rate of 3.5
percent) was much higher than growth of global production (which stood at 2.7
percent per year). Proportion of exports to global production reached a point
in 1913, which remained a peak up to 1970. During the same year (1913),
average rate of tariffs considered for industrial goods was zero percent in
England, 4 percent in the Netherlands, 14 percent in Germany, 5 percent in
India and 3 percent in Iran.
 |
|
Within the framework of global trade, corporate
relations played a major role and flow of foreign direct investment
became a major factor for connecting to global market and globalization
trend. |
During those years, a lot of capital
flowed from western European countries to undeveloped and developing countries
of the world in the Americas, Asia and Australia. Ratio of capital export to
gross national product in England during that period reached about 9 percent
and the same situation prevailed in other major capital exporting countries
such as Germany, France and the Netherlands. Before World War I, there was no
limitation on the way of private capital flow and transfer of capital. An
important part of capital transfer, which was attraction of capital for
financing railroad projects and other affairs as well as other infrastructural
activities in the modern world, was carried out through borrowing. However,
during the same years, capital transfer in the form of foreign direct
investment was remarkable. Narrow gap between real interest rates in British
and American capital markets was an indication of the level and depth of
integration of global capital market. Money based in gold, which is the main
criterion for exchanging various currencies, was a major reason behind this
integration. Share of Western Europe from total foreign direct investment
(according to country of origin) stood at 75.4 in 1914, with Britain alone
accounting for 44.6 percent. Undeveloped countries had no share of capital
export.
Although technological developments,
expansion of marine and rail transport and subsequent reduction of
transportation costs played a role in the course of the first wave of
globalization, trade and financial liberalization current in Europe played a
relatively much more important role compared to the aforesaid factors. During
that period, England, France and Germany played a dominant role in capital
export while Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, India, Mexico, Russia, and
the United States were among major importers of capital. Most investments
during the first wave of globalization were made in the field of primary
economic activities and exploitation of natural resources (mines, oil,
agriculture…) and countries exporting capital did not pay attention to
economic and industrial development of countries attracting capital (except
for such countries as Australia, New Zealand, and the United States).
In addition to transfer of capital with
the goal of taking advantage of land and other natural resources, during the
said period, transfer of inexpensive workforce in the form of mass immigration
surfaced as a major trend. During 1820-1914, about 60 million people left
European countries for North America and Australia. Also, migration from such
countries as China and India to less populated countries like Sri Lanka,
Myanmar (former Burma), Thailand, Philippines and Vietnam, has been assessed
in some estimates to roughly equal migration between Europe and the New World
so that in the first wave of globalization, the number of migratory labor
force accounted for about 10 percent of the world’s population. Developments
in this period in the field of transferring capital and workforce, expansion
of trade and global integration, were effective factors in accelerating
average growth of per capita income in the world from 0.5 percent per year in
1820-1870 to 1.3 percent per year during the 40-year period from 1870 to 1910.
The first wave of economic globalization
with all mechanisms that were mentioned here was faced with a return to
protectionism and closing national economies during decades from 1910s to
1950s due to three major crises including the First World War (1914-1918),
global economic crisis (1929-1932) and the Second World War (1939-1945).
After breakout of World War I, countries
engaged in hostilities resorted to quantitative and non-tariff limitations in
order to control trade exchanges. Also, in 1929 and following major economic
crises in many countries, they increased their trade tariffs in parallel to
reducing price of agricultural products. In June 1930, the United States
passed special laws to boost its import duties by 23 percent, which elicited
retaliatory measures from other countries. On the whole, during that period
apart from various types of tariffs, different quantitative and non-tariff
limitations were imposed to provide economic motivations. On the other hand,
with the onset of World War I, the basic system of gold in countries involved
in the war was suspended and foreign exchange controls were established, thus
considering obstacles for entry and exit of capital. Adoption of protectionist
and nationalistic policies: 1) decreased share of exports to global production
to about 5 percent in 1950, restoring 1870’s figure; 2) reduced foreign
capital in developing countries compared to global production to about 4
percent in 1950, which was much lower than 1870; 3) anti-immigration
sentiments in the context of nationalism in various countries caused
considerable limitations to immigration and transfer of labor force; so that,
immigration to the United States fell from 15 million in the previous period
to 6 million between 1914 and 1950.
 |
While share of industrial exports of developing
countries from their total commodity exports stood at only 25 percent in
1980, that share increased to about 80 percent in the concluding years of
the 20th century. |
In the second wave of globalization
(1950-1980), after termination of the Second World War and following reduction
of trade barriers among advanced countries and establishment of international
institutions (GATT, International Monetary Fund, World Bank) as well as due to
participation of the United States in the reconstruction of Europe and Japan
and so on, trade among advanced countries took up much speed from 1960 to
1980. In those years, despite emergence of new industrial development
tendencies in undeveloped countries, they generally failed to avail of
considerable trade current in that period due to mainly internalized political
approaches. At the same time, trade liberalization among developed countries
was such that it led to basic limitations in the course of international
integration both from the viewpoint of goods inclusion, and from the
standpoint of including major world countries. Existence of trade barriers in
advanced countries which meant to limit import of primary goods and industrial
products of developing countries as well as existence of protectionist
obstacles in non-industrial countries caused the trend of globalization to be
limited to advanced industrial states. During that age of globalization which
has been known as the golden age of accumulation, only advanced industrial
states availed of raid growth of exchanges, especially trade exchanges, and
developing countries that were in early stages of economic development failed
to take practical part in the process of international trade and capital
exchanges through adopting import replacement strategy. However, some of those
countries including South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore… took timely steps to
review that strategy and adopt another, externalized one to pave the way for
joining to and availing of the global current in their national economies. In
this way, they brought about their indigenized industrial development trends
and broke new grounds with regard to economic and industrial development to
emerge as a model for continued industrialization of developing countries
through an externalized approach, economic liberalization, trade
liberalization, and preparation for attraction of foreign capital.
During the second wave of globalization,
transportation costs diminished in parallel to reduction in trade barriers in
advanced industrial states; so that, from 1950s to late 1970s, marine
transport fares were reduced by one-third and proportion of global trade to
production was doubled and it nearly approached peak performance during the
first wave. However, during this period, international exchange of capital and
transfer of labor force at global level fell short of the first wave’s
performance. The result of performance of globalization trend in that period
failed to bring about major changes in terms of international division of
labor and commercial relations between advanced and developing countries; so
that, relationship between the two group of countries is still based on
exchange of manufactured industrial goods in return for primary goods relying
on natural resources and land. In 1980 and at the end of the second wave of
globalization, ratio of industrial exports of developing countries to total
commodity export of those countries never surpassed 25 percent. The main
characteristic of that period from the viewpoint of industrial development of
the world, was expansion of markets along with diversification of industrial
goods as well as specialization and importance of benefits resulting from
concentration of industrial activities; emergence of interconnected industrial
clusters and economy of scale in industrial production in advanced countries.
This tendency for developing countries meant that in the process of industrial
development of all developing countries in the future, role of land, natural
resources and inexpensive manpower will lose in importance while consequences
of establishment of industrial clusters as well as requisite infrastructures
and institutions will gain importance in terms of reducing costs and achieving
mass production aimed at exports.
 |
Countries that first joined the globalization trend in
the course of the third wave of globalization are those countries that
availed of inexpensive manpower and, as a result, benefited from their
comparative advantages to produce labor-intensive industrial goods as well
as in the service sector. |
In the second wave of globalization, the
process of inter-sectoral industrial trade among advanced countries became
more pronounced and, simultaneously, due to increased cost of production
resulting from concentration of industrial activities in those countries, the
way was paved for transfer and relocation of activities to take advantage of
less expensive production factors. This transfer, during the second wave of
globalization, was generally restricted to inside of industrial countries and
did not spread to developing states. An instance is transfer of the American
textile industries from northeastern to southern states.
The third wave of globalization (1980
onwards) was characterized by special features, which took global economy
forcefully and more rapidly into a new orbit of international convergence and
integration. In the third wave of globalization, a bigger part of the world
and higher number of independent and developing countries with total
population of about 3 billion people took active part or made changes to their
economic and industrial structures through assimilation into production and
commercial institutions of advanced industrial states which enabled them to
achieve a considerable share of global trade. While share of industrial
exports of developing countries from their total commodity exports stood at
only 25 percent in 1980, that share increased to about 80 percent in the
concluding years of the 20th century (1998), which indicated a major change
over a relatively short period of time. On the whole, this development was
more rapid in Asian countries compared to other parts of the world and
proportion of industrial exports to total commodity export in this region
reached about 85 percent in 2000. Among countries that experienced major
changes in composition of their exports during the last two decades of the
20th century (1980-2000), one can mention the following examples:
-
China from 40 percent to 88 percent;
-
Poland from 61 percent to 80 percent;
-
Hungary from 65 percent to 86 percent;
-
Philippines from 21 percent to 92
percent;
-
Singapore from 47 percent to 86
percent;
-
Mexico from 12 percent to 83 percent;
-
Turkey from 27 percent to 81 percent;
-
Malaysia from 19 percent to 80
percent;
-
Thailand from 25 percent to 76
percent;
-
India from 59 percent to 79 percent
(in 1999);
-
Pakistan from 48 percent to 85
percent.
This group of
countries succeeded in the last two decades of the 20th century to increase
share of their industrial exports from total export goods to a level higher
than the global average; that is 75 percent. Countries like South Korea,
Taiwan, and Hong Kong, which started their industrial development process
simultaneous with international integration during the second wave of
globalization; generally increased share of their industrial exports in
1980-2000 to higher than 90 percent. Among developing countries, there was
another group that despite growing share of industrial exports, its
performance during the last two decades of the 20th century and in 2000 was
lower than the world’s average, including:
-
Indonesia from 2 percent to 57
percent;
-
Brazil from 37 percent to 59 percent;
-
Argentina from 23 percent to 35
percent (in 1998);
Another major development in the course
of the third wave of globalization was related to increased share of service
exports, in general, including trade services; from total exports of
countries. In early 1980s, export share of commercial services to total
exports of developing countries stood only at 9 percent, which was almost
doubled in the concluding years of the 20th century to about 17 percent.
Corresponding figures for advanced countries rose from 17 percent to 20
percent.
These developments indicate emergence of
new trends in international system of division of labor, in which trading
primary goods with manufactured industrial goods, which pertained to the first
and second waves of globalization, has been replaced with a new paradigm of
diversifying trade transactions with a higher share for industrial goods.
Therefore, those countries which failed to link their economies to growing
international economy during the third wave of globalization are still faring
under conditions of trade exchanges which were characteristic of the first and
second waves of globalization as well as international system of division of
labor based on trading raw materials and primary goods for industrial products
(asymmetric integration). These countries will be marginalized in the course
of historical trend of reducing trade exchanges. This process will have
detrimental consequences on future industrial development trend of those
countries. According to studies, countries that first joined the globalization
trend in the course of the third wave of globalization are those countries
that availed of inexpensive manpower and, as a result, benefited from their
comparative advantages to produce labor-intensive industrial goods as well as
in the service sector. Therefore, any growth in their industrial exports was
mainly dependent on those advantages. For this reason, countries that are
marginalized will be facing tougher conditions and more limitations during
next waves of global industrial development due to concentration of industries
and their benefits in progressive developing regions of the world.
In the third wave of economic
globalization, in parallel to decreasing costs of transportation and
communication as well as diminishing tariffs, removal of non-tariff obstacles
and policy changes in countries, which aimed at attraction of more foreign
investment, paved the way for smooth movement of goods and capital as well as
immigration of manpower. The trend of international immigration and capital
exchanges, which was slowed down considerably during the second wave of
globalization once more became pronounced during the third wave of
globalization and under new global economic atmosphere. Reduction of natural
and artificial obstacles to economic exchanges in the world during the third
wave of globalization provided practical grounds for breaking up production
stages, new industrial arrangements as well as establishment of global value
chains and international production and trade. In this way developing
countries were offered with new opportunities to find a suitable place in the
new international system of division of labor proportionate to their
industrial potentials and capabilities.
Within the framework of global trade,
corporate relations played a major role and flow of foreign direct investment
became a major factor for connecting to global market and globalization trend.
In this way interdependencies in global economy were intensified from
viewpoints of technology, methods of industrial production, organization,
marketing, and design of products. Research and development activities have
become very important in international economic relations. Trade, technology
transfer and foreign direct investment have lost their independent identities
as three main elements of globalization and promotion of international
production and are now closely interrelated. Expansion of markets along with
intensification of competition and enough motives for taking advantage of
economies of scale has led to geographical concentration and spate of mergers
and acquisitions in the field of industrial activities and this phenomenon has
made participation in international value chains as well as production and
trade networks a necessity, especially for developing industrial states.
During this period, multilateral trade and investment rules and agreements are
considered as major features of the third wave of globalization which provide
new opportunities for expansion of trade exchanges and investment while
creating limitations for all countries through the necessity of adapting
industrial strategies and policies to international regulations.
During the third wave of globalization,
bolstering regional trends and establishment of trade and economic cooperation
associations in Europe, North America, Latin America and other parts of the
world including the European Union, NAPHTHA in North America, Mercosur in
Latin America, ASEAN in Southeast Asia, and APEC in the Pacific region has
gained high importance. Such trends are not incompatible with globalization
trend, but act as a tool to connect markets and take advantage of
supplementary potentials and capabilities to develop and deepen integration of
countries and facilitate growth of international transactions.
At the same time, another feature of the
third wave of globalization is emergence of transnational companies in
progressive developing countries and appearance of new capital markets in
global economy which can be a sign of general trend of economic convergence
with a performance similar to advanced industrial countries. This also
indicates a gap between emerging industrial states and other parts of the
developing world.
In addition, during the third wave of
globalization, internationalization of information and knowledge under
influence of advances made in such fields as information and communication
technology, emergence of new methods of transactions as well as economic and
industrial cooperation, development of modern, knowledge-intensive industries
as well as various forms of inter-corporation relations have given rise to
trends which have facilitated industrial development in developing countries
and have created new opportunities for those countries to fill their
technology gap with the advanced states. |
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
CURRENT ISSUE |
|
|
 |
|
| |
May 2006
No. 40 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
| |
 |
|