|
Partnership
in Energy |
|
Cooperation in Security |
|
Undoubtedly, China, which enjoys
the highest consumption rate of energy and the highest demand growth rate
and also enjoys the highest economic growth rate among Asian countries,
has more concerns about assuring constant flow of needed energy to keep
its economy going, because access to secure energy sources is a basic
factor for assuring continuation of modernization as China’s strategic
choice. |
 |
Interdependence
between Iran and China:
Diverse and vast
capacities have given special dynamism to relations between Iran and China
during recent years and bilateral ties have been continuously expanding in
various fields.
One of the most
important cooperation grounds between Iran and China during those years was
energy, which undoubtedly played the most important role in dynamics of the
two countries’ relationships. Potential capacities for cooperation between
Iran and China in the field of energy are vast and if realized, they can be
ensued with positive political and security consequences, some of which have
been discussed in this paper.
Importance of
Energy in New International Equations:
Global developments
during the past decade have drawn more attention to development. Emergence of
new economic powers, importance attached to public welfare and competition of
world powers and countries in economic fields have increased energy
consumption in the world over the past few years. Increasing lack of balance
between energy production and consumption in the world has turned security of
energy supply, which was marginal to international security during past years,
into a major theme. This is manifested by consultations and negotiations over
past months at various levels and more attention paid by industrial states to
energy supply and its security. An example was the recent meeting of finance
ministers of eight industrial states, called G-8, in Moscow, where energy
security established the main topic for discussion.
Putting energy
security high on the agenda of the said conference was a clear sign of
international concerns about this issue. In view of increasing need for
energy, such concerns will continue to rise in the absence of interaction and
understanding among energy producers and consumers.
Energy as a
Basic Variable in Economic Growth of Asian Countries:
Naturally, Asia, as the
world’s most dynamic economic region, enjoys the highest degree of
vulnerability when it comes to energy security. Energy consumption growth rate
in Asia, which is the highest rate in the world as well as its consistently
upward trend attests to this fact. According to statistics released by
International Energy Agency, developing Asia (save for Japan and South Korea)
will increase global demand for energy by 42 percent up to 2030. Meanwhile,
during the same period, the United States and Canada will account for only 26
percent of increase in global energy demand. In fact, intensely increasing
need of Asian countries to energy and the necessity of supplying energy from
external sources have greatly increased importance of energy and its secure
supply for those countries. For this reason, supplying needed energy and its
security will assume an important role in foreign relations of Asian countries
as economy and industry in this region continues to grow.
 |
|
Energy has
provided an expanded capacity for development of relations between Iran
and China, which can be used to promote bilateral economic cooperation
within frame of an overarching strategy, which would meet the interests
of both countries as well as the whole region. |
1. Oil in Future
Plans of China:
Undoubtedly, China,
which enjoys the highest consumption rate of energy and the highest demand
growth rate and also enjoys the highest economic growth rate among Asian
countries, has more concerns about assuring constant flow of needed energy to
keep its economy going, because access to secure energy sources, is a basic
factor for assuring continuation of modernization as China’s strategic choice.
Due to its rapid economic growth, China
which was the world’s fifth oil producing countries of the world started
importing oil in 1993. A decade later, high energy consumption in China made
the country to surpass Japan in 2003 and come up as the world’s second biggest
oil consuming country. According to available statistics, oil consumption in
China has grown 90 percent between 1993 and 2003, while domestic oil
production during the same period grew by less than 15 percent.
Widening gap between domestic oil
production and consumption will undoubtedly make China increasingly dependent
on imported oil. China’s oil imports increased from 20 million tons per year
in 1996 to 70 million tons per year in 2002 and 200 million tons in 2005.
According to current forecasts, the figure will hit 150 million tons per year
in 2010 and 250-300 million tons per year in 2020. In other words, China’s
dependence on imported oil will increase from 30 percent in 2002 to 50 percent
in 2007, 60 percent in 2010, and 85 percent in 2030.
2. Gas in Future
Plans of China:
Although gas currently
accounts for about 3 percent of China’s needed energy, according to current
forecasts, its consumption will be doubled by 2010. Therefore, demand in
natural gas consumption market of China will reach 120 billion cubic meters by
2010 and 200 billion cubic meters in 2020. In the most optimistic situation,
40 percent and 80 percent of the said figures, respectively, should be
supplied through imports.
The interesting
point with regard to gas is that despite current situation when natural gas
only accounts for 3 percent of China’s energy basket [in sharp contrast to
global standard (28 percent) and other Asian countries (8.8 percent)], the
country enjoys considerable potentials in this regard. For this reason,
China’s Development and Reform Commission has announced that share of gas in
the country’s energy basket should rise to 12 percent up to 2020.
3. Necessity of
Attention to Energy Security in China’s Future Policies:
Attention to energy
situation in China will reveal that, on the one hand, energy demand is sharply
increasing in that country due to its rapid economic growth and, on the other
hand, due to shortage of domestic energy sources, the country’s dependence on
international energy sources is growing in parallel. That dependence becomes
more prominent when we take into account that despite its high economic growth
rate over the past years, China, which is home to 20 percent of the world’s
population, produces only 4 percent of global gross domestic product.
Therefore, there is still a huge capacity for growth in gross domestic product
and subsequent growth in energy consumption and that energy should mostly be
supplied through foreign sources. Although, China is currently the biggest
energy consumer among Asian countries, it has the lowest per capita
consumption in comparison to other regional countries. Per capita energy
consumption in China is only half of the world’s average figure.
On the whole,
the rapidly increasing energy demand in China along with vast capacities and
insufficient domestic resources has turned energy security into a basic
element in national security of that country. On the other hand, energy supply
and its security can be realized by relying on international energy sources
topped by Persian Gulf region.
Cooperation
Capacities between Iran and China:
Persian Gulf as the
world’s energy focus has always played a unique role in supply and security of
energy for major consumer countries. Addition of China, as a major Asian
power, to big oil consumers can play a great role in establishing links
between energy security and regional security.
Among regional
countries, Iran enjoys the world’s second biggest oil and gas reserves, on the
one hand, and pursues an independent approach in management of its energy
reserves, on the other hand, and therefore, enjoys good capacities for secure,
long-term cooperation with China with respect to energy. Those capacities are
divided into three broad categories:
A. Bilateral:
Iran enjoys rich oil and
gas reserves as well as long experience in the field of energy and China
enjoys dynamic economic growth, which has increased its demand for energy and
these are good cooperation grounds between the two countries as potential
economic partners. Iran is quite capable of meeting a large part of China’s
energy requirements. Iran sells 10-12 million tons crude oil to China per year
and is among three top countries exporting oil to China. At present, Iran has
more capacities for increasing oil sales to China.
Capacities for bilateral cooperation are
especially bigger when it comes to natural gas. Currently, gas accounts for a
small share in China’s energy basket and according to Chinese government’s
plan, the figure should increase to 12 percent by 2020. Iran’s rich gas
reserves have created a potential ground for expansion of bilateral
collaboration in this field.
In view of the implementation of major
liquefied natural gas projects at South Pars gas field and negotiations
carried out thus far, future LNG exports to China can meet part of that
country’s energy demand. According to an agreement signed by the two
countries, China is supposed to buy 10 million tons per year LNG from Iran.
Iran’s energy resources in Caspian Sea
also give rise to important capabilities for cooperation between the two
sides. Oil exports from Caspian Sea and Central Asia to China entail economic
advantages both for exporting countries and for China. In addition, Iran’s
independence in management of its energy resources, sustainable political
stability of the country and special attention paid by Iran to cooperation
with Asian states, especially China, constitute good grounds for consolidation
of ties with Asian countries. Also, the Fourth Economic Development Plan has
projected implementation of huge projects in oil, gas, and petrochemical
industries, which are to be implemented in cooperation with foreign companies.
Cooperation with Chinese companies for the implementation of those projects is
another ground for bolstering collaboration between Tehran and Beijing. At
present, Chinese companies are active in some Iranian oil projects and that
cooperation can be further expanded in view of technical and financial
abilities of Chinese companies.
B. Multilateral:
A major feature of Asia
is its self-sufficiency. That is, this continent enjoys vast capacities with
regard to resources, technology and manpower which are the main pillars of
development and progress. One of the major manifestations of this
self-sufficiency can be seen in the field of energy. Asia contains important
energy centers of the world. Another part of the continent has come up as the
most dynamic economic region of the world due to its amazing economic growth
rate. That dynamism has increased need for energy. The main point about this
situation is that self-sufficiency of Asia should be taken advantage of in a
proper manner. This means that by expanding interaction between countries
enjoying energy resources, which are mainly situated in west and central Asia,
and major Asian energy consumers, which are mainly located in the eastern and
southern parts of the continent, Asian countries will be able to not only make
the most of that self-sufficiency, but also move toward consolidation of
interdependence and finally materialize unity of Asian countries. Naturally,
Iran and China will be major players in this regard which enjoys vast
capacities in west and east of Asia and will be able to play the most
effective roles.
Efforts aimed at extending the proposed
Iran – Pakistan – India gas pipeline up to China can be a first and decisive
step to realize interdependence among Asian countries. If this dream comes
true, West Asia, especially Iran, will play an important role in energy
security of East and West Asia and, consequently, interdependence between
eastern and western parts of the continent will be realized.
Moreover, construction of a gas pipeline
from Pakistan to India, which has been already called ‘peace pipeline’, will
play key role in solving one of the most bitter crises in Asian continent
(that is, conflicts between India and Pakistan over Kashmir) and will be a
major step toward realization of peace and development, in a large part of the
continent. Cooperation between China and Kazakhstan in the latter’s oil fields
and establishing an oil pipeline to carry Kazakh oil to China is a good ground
for bolstering ties between Central Asia and China through extending the
pipeline toward the Caspian Sea to transfer Caspian oil through the pipeline.
Within this frame, feasibility of this
idea can be assessed with regard to the said gas pipeline. Afterwards, its
implementation can be discussed in quadrilateral talks attended by Iran,
China, India and Pakistan. With regard to the oil pipeline, in view of
increase oil price in international markets and great distance between Caspian
Sea and China, implementation of that plan will require consultations among
concerned countries and comprehensive studies.
C. Ensuring
Security:
Persian Gulf, as the most important
global center for energy transport is also one of the main centers of crisis
in international political scene after termination of the Cold War. Occurrence
of two devastating wars in this region during the first decade after the end
of the Cold War attests to the said fact. This simultaneity shows that
establishment of security in the region is not proportionate to energy
security as a basic concern for major energy consuming countries, most of whom
are also big players in international political scene. As a result, general
environment of regional countries is unsafe, one the one hand, while consuming
countries have tied security of energy supply and, naturally, national
security of their countries to an unpredictable region. The most important
reason for this unpleasant situation is rooted in efforts made by the United
States and some other major players in international arena that try to impose
a hegemonic security model on this region, a model that seeks to impose the
will of some of those players on security arrangements in the region. For
example, unilateral approach taken by the United States in occupying Iraq and
the US policies in that country during occupation have not only led to
insecurity and instability in Iraq, but also raised great concern among
regional states as to spread of chaos to their countries.
Efforts made to water down Iran’s role
in regional security arrangements can be assessed along the same lines. A
suitable solution for overcoming the current unpleasant security situation in
the region is resorting to a ‘cooperative security’ model and trying to making
it the dominant model for regional security arrangements. This model is based
on consultation and participation of all concerned players in establishment of
stability and security in the region. In other words, within frame of the said
model, regional security order arises from within interactions, cooperation
and consultations among all regional states and will, therefore, be strong and
stable enough to realize their interests. Iran, as a major regional players,
on the one hand, and China as a big emerging power whose economic growth and
prosperity is linked to energy security as well as overall security of the
Persian Gulf, on the other hand, enjoy common abilities and interests in
pursuing the said security model. That model exactly conforms to principles of
multilateralism, which is in turn, a building block for shaping foreign
policies of both countries at international level. Iran’s membership in Asian
economic cooperation organizations and Iran’s cooperation with Shanghai
Economic Cooperation Organization as observer have created further
opportunities for more interaction with China and other Asian countries.
Realization of a common security model
is, in fact, an effort aimed at making the Persian Gulf region ‘predictable’
because it is one of the most sensitive regions in international politics and,
therefore, an important element in meeting the interests of both producers and
consumers of energy.
Conclusion:
Energy has provided an
expanded capacity for development of relations between Iran and China, which
can be used to promote bilateral economic cooperation within frame of an
overarching strategy, which would meet the interests of both countries as well
as the whole region. That capacity should be coupled with a ‘common will’ to
be realized. The main point which deserves special attention is that existing
capacities should not be solely looked upon from the angle of ‘energy economy’
and should not be restricted to cooperation in energy industries, but
consequences should be viewed within frame of security and Asian cooperation.
In this way, energy and energy cooperation is only a basis for the realization
of capacities. In other words, we must go beyond technical and economic
concerns when looking at such capacities and focus on political economy as the
axis of our analyses. It means that we must pay simultaneous attention to
economic and political interests and capabilities in every instance of
cooperation and do our best to realize them.
Establishment of
a regular discourse between the two countries at technical, economic, and
political levels will be the first step toward all-out identification of all
potentials for expansion of bilateral ties. Such discourse and bilateral
cooperation which can realize the interests of both sides, will also pave the
way for interaction and understanding between energy producing and consuming
countries. In this way, energy will not be looked upon within frame of
international political developments, Persian Gulf will become a predictable
region, and energy supply security will finally be realized. |
