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January 2007, No. 42


Industry

8% Economic Growth Rate Not Impossible

It is easy to announce figures, but when people do not feel those figures in their real lives, it becomes clear that those figures are false.

The following is an interview with the Chairman of the Majlis Industries and Mines Committee, Seyed Hossein Hashemi. Hashemi has served in the Majlis for three terms and as a minority Majlis deputy is critical of the economic performance of the current government. Hashemi is also a member of the Central Committee of the Executives of Construction Party and has held posts in the Ministry of Industries and the Ministry of Mines and Metals during previous administrations. In the following interview, he reflects on a number of issues including the case of Parsian Bank, the import and export of automobiles, changes in tariffs and the overall economic performance of the Ninth government so far.

Lets start with the case of Parsian Bank since it has received a lot of attention these days. Firstly, why is this case being handled by the Industries and Mines Committee instead of being dealt with by the Economic Committee?

Since we examine barriers to production, issues that impede or slow down investment, such as the Parsian Bank case, effectively fall under our purview. Of course, it seems that the Economic Committee or Planning and Budget Committee should have had priority in examining the case. Regardless, the Industries and Mines Committee is sensitive about any issue that slows down investment.

How far have your examinations of this case progressed so far?

We have heard a number of different issues regarding Parsian Bank. As a result, we held a vote in the Industries and Mines Committee and decided to invite relevant officials who were somehow connected to the case to come to Majlis and provide explanations regarding the issues. In this light, we invited Mr. Talebi, the Managing Director of Parsian Bank, and heard his explanations pertaining to the matter and will also call upon the Governor of the Central Bank of Iran and the Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance to come to Majlis as well.

Will the Majlis, if needed, interfere in this case?

No, we cannot interfere. The Majlis only wants to know what is going on within this case and to be kept informed about the issues. Of course, when the case is clarified, Majlis deputies can enter into the case if they deem fit.

Apart from the Parsian Bank case, a brief examination of the economic performance of the Ninth government shows that making unconventional decisions is becoming a habit for state authorities. Does the Majlis have any plans to restrict such decisions by the government?

On the whole, if we fail to realize a two-digit growth rate for the industrial sector, we will not be able to achieve an eight percent growth rate for the economy, which is an objective of the Fourth Economic Development Plan.

I think the best way is to rely upon the Twenty-Year Perspective Plan and the Fourth Economic Development Plan. As such, the government will have to routinely keep within the framework outlined by the Perspective Plan, which has been approved by the Supreme leader, and the Fourth Economic Plan which has been ratified by the Majlis and approved by the Council of Guardians. Therefore, the government will not be able to work outside grand economic plans. Monitoring the government’s activities in this regard is, in my opinion, quite legal.

On the other hand, we have the Committee for the Conformity of Laws, headed by Majlis Speaker, which has the ability to prevent the implementation of ratifications put forth by the government, which are submitted to this Committee, if they contradict existing laws and regulations. I think that this Committee has become less active and needs to become more involved in the future. Moreover, some Committee members have protested for not submitting ratifications to the Committee for examination. The Majlis Speaker also needs to be more serious in this regard and must work towards activating the Committee and making sure it examines all the ratifications put forth by the government. In case of a contradiction with existing laws, the Committee would notify the government and if it considers a ratification to be against the law, the government will have to comply with its viewpoint.

What about sudden changes in the laws? For example, the government suddenly decides to remove tariffs on a certain commodity. In such an environment, investors will be discouraged from taking action and will be uncertain about the future. What does the Majlis plan on doing to bring about more stability within the investment environment?

Good steps have been taken in this regard. Ministers have been invited to the Majlis and we have also written a letter to the President. We feel that tariffs are a good controlling tool that can be used by the government to regulate the market and prevent possible crises. Of course, economic timing and shrewdness are very important in this regard. Yet, sudden changes to tariffs undertaken by the government have had rather unwanted consequences.

For example, the Commerce Ministry was to import such fruits as apples and oranges on the verge of the New Year to prevent economic pressures on the people during the holidays. But instead, we witnessed the import of such irrelevant products as French eggplants, Chilean grapes, potatoes, and other similar products.

It is evident that the government acted carelessly in this matter and should’ve prevented the import of such products in order protect the farmers from such pressures. In order to regulate the market, the government needs to both import and export goods which requires wise management at the Commerce Ministry. Not only do these decisions also seriously harm consumers, they also negatively impact units of production such as the textile and home appliances sectors who are making losses due to excessive imports, low tariff rates and smuggling of goods. Moreover, we witness excessive marketing of foreign goods which are showing on billboards across our city. Thus, if the government does not act promptly and seriously, domestic production can be severely hampered.

Has the industrial sector really grown at a ten percent rate?

We have a problematic banking system which has brought about stagnation in investments. If banks announced the percentage of major investments opened in the current year, I am sure it would not be more than four to five percent. Surely, this is going to affect the national economy.

According to the latest figures, the growth rate for the industrial sector was around eight percent which is a long way from the goals outlined by the Fourth Economic Development Plan that anticipated a two-digit growth rate for this sector. In the past, the growth rate of the industrial sector surpassed eleven percent and sometimes even reached fourteen percent.

On the whole, if we fail to realize a two-digit growth rate for the industrial sector, we will not be able to achieve an eight percent growth rate for the economy, which is an objective of the Fourth Economic Development Plan. Success in achieving the mentioned growth rate for the industrial sector is essential in achieving an eight percent economic growth rate. Currently, our economic growth rate is at five percent and the issues outline above all call for a comprehensive overview f the government’s economic performance.

But the Governor of the Central Bank of Iran has a different opinion regarding the country’s economic growth rate.

A while ago, the Governor of the Central Bank said something rather interesting when he announced that we are only 0.7 percent behind the objectives of the Fourth Economic Development Plan and that we will be able to achieve an 8.5 percent growth rate by the end of the current Iranian year. But this is impossible. No economic ration can accept that we could boost the country’s economic growth rate from the current rate of 5 percent to 8 percent in the remaining few months.

I am surprised to hear somebody like Mr. Sheibani who has spent a lifetime at the Central Bank of Iran to say such things through the national television.

The question that arises is that how does the Governor of the Central Bank state that we only lag 0.7 percent from the goals of the Fourth Economic Development Plan when the Economic Bureau of the Central Bank of Iran has clearly announced that we lag behind by 2.4 percent? Achieving an economic growth rate of 8.5 percent requires a flurry of economic activity. When this has not been achieved in the past six to seven month period, it is quite clear that it will not happen in the remaining five to six month period either. Therefore, I think officials should refrain from making such comments and from announcing such unreal figures as expert testimonies.

What are the complications of presenting such unreal statistics by related officials?

I think we will see the adverse affects of such announcements in the next one or two years.

What sort of adverse affects do you mean?

I am referring to the stagnation of investment prospects, an increase in the unemployment rate, and so on. The public will gradually become aware of these adverse affects and the time will come when the officials could do nothing to improve the situation. At a time when the world is rapidly advancing, compensating for such backward steps will be very difficult.

I officially announce that if we ignore the present realities and fail to act deftly, we will certainly face crises and difficulties in the future. For example, how can the Governor of the Central Bank of Iran claim that the unemployment rate is declining when the reality points to a large unemployed percentage? We have two hundred and ninety deputies from various regions of the country present in the Majlis, ask any one of them and they will say that unemployment is a serious concern for their constituency and that the unemployment rate is certainly not declining. In fact, many people who come to meet with Majlis deputies are seeking jobs.

It is easy to announce figures, but when people do not feel those figures in their real lives, it becomes clear that those figures are false. This is true about inflation too. The problem cannot be solved by hiding it or saying that inflation is imaginary or made up by the media. How can I claim that meat, for example, is cheap when I personally purchased a kilogram of meat for 6,5000 tomans at a cooperative store? High prices are real. Inflation is real. We should not hide the reality about inflation or high prices since that will lead people to become distrustful about whatever the government says.

On the other hand, we have a problematic banking system which has brought about stagnation in investments. If banks announced the percentage of major investments opened in the current year, I am sure it would not be more than four to five percent. Surely, this is going to affect the national economy.

What is your opinion about various plans that are being implemented in different provinces such as "provincial steel" plans? Some experts believe that such plans are not economically feasible. Do you agree with that?

No, I support provincial plans. We should be fair in criticism. What has been done for steel is eye-catching. If the same were done for aluminum and copper, it would be quite fruitful. If we could achieve projected capacities by the end of the Fourth Economic Development Plan, it would be a major breakthrough.

Let’s talk about the controversial "L-90" contract. Mr. Katouziyan, a Majlis deputy, has always opposed the contract and believes that the French company, Renault, has shorthanded Iran on the deal. What is your opinion about the "L-90" contract?

I believe that the "L-90" contract is the best deal that we have ever had with regard to automobile industry.

I am totally opposed to what Mr. Katouziyan says because the contract is quite transparent and the French side has acceded to changes that were proposed by the Majlis and the changes were added to "L-90" contract as amendments. I think current criticism of the contract is not fair. The English text of the contract is also available and shows that Majlis’ amendments have been included.

It seems that we are facing a complicated problem with regard to car exports and our car exports is more similar to a mere "gesture" right now. An example is problems that we have been facing for opening Samand production line in Syria and the country’s car import tariff has been reduced by 40 percent. Do we have to export at any cost?

We should find a solution to such problems. The world is quite competitive and we must also play by the rules of the game. Otherwise, we would fail. We must get prepared for accession to the WTO. Therefore, our investments should be economically feasible. When we export cars, we are facing rivals that produce 3-4 million cars which brings their overall cost much lower. In regards the market conditions in Syria, our carmakers should find solutions in consultation with the Syrian parties. We should not think that we will fail there because import tariffs have been reduced. We should strive to remain within that market. If exports proved to be uneconomical, we would stop them. But I think presence in the Syrian market is still possible.

Lastly, how do you evaluate the performance, up to now, of the Ministry of Industries and Mines under the current administration?

Some subsidiaries of the ministry like the Industries Development and Renovation Organization or the Mines Development and Renovation Organization are taking good steps, but there are other problems and the Minister needs to act powerfully in order to find solutions to the problems, which will at times put him at odds with others within the government. The Ministry is trying to be effective, but the result is not satisfactory. I think the Ministry of Industries and Mines should get rid of its current conservatism and discuss the existing problems, rather than hiding them in order to please the President.

In addition, making changes to specialized sectors and replacing experienced directors with new, inexperienced ones could be very dangerous. We hear news about possible changes in industrial units which, if true, will greatly jeopardize those units.

 

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  January 2007
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