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8% Economic
Growth Rate Not Impossible |
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It is easy to announce figures, but when people do not
feel those figures in their real lives, it becomes clear that those
figures are false. |
The following is an interview with the Chairman of the
Majlis Industries and Mines Committee, Seyed Hossein Hashemi. Hashemi has
served in the Majlis for three terms and as a minority Majlis deputy is
critical of the economic performance of the current government. Hashemi is
also a member of the Central Committee of the Executives of Construction Party
and has held posts in the Ministry of Industries and the Ministry of Mines and
Metals during previous administrations. In the following interview, he
reflects on a number of issues including the case of Parsian Bank, the import
and export of automobiles, changes in tariffs and the overall economic
performance of the Ninth government so far.
Lets start with the case of Parsian Bank since it has
received a lot of attention these days. Firstly, why is this case being
handled by the Industries and Mines Committee instead of being dealt with by
the Economic Committee?
Since we examine barriers to production, issues that impede
or slow down investment, such as the Parsian Bank case, effectively fall under
our purview. Of course, it seems that the Economic Committee or Planning and
Budget Committee should have had priority in examining the case. Regardless,
the Industries and Mines Committee is sensitive about any issue that slows
down investment.
How far have your examinations of this case progressed so
far?
We have heard a number of different issues regarding
Parsian Bank. As a result, we held a vote in the Industries and Mines
Committee and decided to invite relevant officials who were somehow connected
to the case to come to Majlis and provide explanations regarding the issues.
In this light, we invited Mr. Talebi, the Managing Director of Parsian Bank,
and heard his explanations pertaining to the matter and will also call upon
the Governor of the Central Bank of Iran and the Minister of Economic Affairs
and Finance to come to Majlis as well.
Will the Majlis, if needed, interfere in this case?
No, we cannot interfere. The Majlis only wants to
know what is going on within this case and to be kept informed about the
issues. Of course, when the case is clarified, Majlis deputies can
enter into the case if they deem fit.
Apart from the Parsian Bank case, a brief examination of
the economic performance of the Ninth government shows that making
unconventional decisions is becoming a habit for state authorities. Does the
Majlis have any plans to restrict such decisions by the government?
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On the whole, if we fail to realize a two-digit growth
rate for the industrial sector, we will not be able to achieve an eight
percent growth rate for the economy, which is an objective of the Fourth
Economic Development Plan. |
I think the best way is to rely upon the Twenty-Year
Perspective Plan and the Fourth Economic Development Plan. As such, the
government will have to routinely keep within the framework outlined by the
Perspective Plan, which has been approved by the Supreme leader, and the
Fourth Economic Plan which has been ratified by the Majlis and approved
by the Council of Guardians. Therefore, the government will not be able to
work outside grand economic plans. Monitoring the government’s activities in
this regard is, in my opinion, quite legal.
On the other hand, we have the Committee for the Conformity
of Laws, headed by Majlis Speaker, which has the ability to prevent the
implementation of ratifications put forth by the government, which are
submitted to this Committee, if they contradict existing laws and regulations.
I think that this Committee has become less active and needs to become more
involved in the future. Moreover, some Committee members have protested for
not submitting ratifications to the Committee for examination. The Majlis
Speaker also needs to be more serious in this regard and must work towards
activating the Committee and making sure it examines all the ratifications put
forth by the government. In case of a contradiction with existing laws, the
Committee would notify the government and if it considers a ratification to be
against the law, the government will have to comply with its viewpoint.
What about sudden changes in the laws? For example, the
government suddenly decides to remove tariffs on a certain commodity. In such
an environment, investors will be discouraged from taking action and will be
uncertain about the future. What does the Majlis plan on doing to bring
about more stability within the investment environment?
Good steps have been taken in this regard. Ministers have
been invited to the Majlis and we have also written a letter to the
President. We feel that tariffs are a good controlling tool that can be used
by the government to regulate the market and prevent possible crises. Of
course, economic timing and shrewdness are very important in this regard. Yet,
sudden changes to tariffs undertaken by the government have had rather
unwanted consequences.
For example, the Commerce Ministry was to import such
fruits as apples and oranges on the verge of the New Year to prevent economic
pressures on the people during the holidays. But instead, we witnessed the
import of such irrelevant products as French eggplants, Chilean grapes,
potatoes, and other similar products.
It is evident that the government acted carelessly in this
matter and should’ve prevented the import of such products in order protect
the farmers from such pressures. In order to regulate the market, the
government needs to both import and export goods which requires wise
management at the Commerce Ministry. Not only do these decisions also
seriously harm consumers, they also negatively impact units of production such
as the textile and home appliances sectors who are making losses due to
excessive imports, low tariff rates and smuggling of goods. Moreover, we
witness excessive marketing of foreign goods which are showing on billboards
across our city. Thus, if the government does not act promptly and seriously,
domestic production can be severely hampered.
Has the industrial sector really grown at a ten percent
rate?
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We have a problematic banking system which has brought
about stagnation in investments. If banks announced the percentage of
major investments opened in the current year, I am sure it would not be
more than four to five percent. Surely, this is going to affect the
national economy. |
According to the latest figures, the growth rate for the
industrial sector was around eight percent which is a long way from the goals
outlined by the Fourth Economic Development Plan that anticipated a two-digit
growth rate for this sector. In the past, the growth rate of the industrial
sector surpassed eleven percent and sometimes even reached fourteen percent.
On the whole, if we fail to realize a two-digit growth rate
for the industrial sector, we will not be able to achieve an eight percent
growth rate for the economy, which is an objective of the Fourth Economic
Development Plan. Success in achieving the mentioned growth rate for the
industrial sector is essential in achieving an eight percent economic growth
rate. Currently, our economic growth rate is at five percent and the issues
outline above all call for a comprehensive overview f the government’s
economic performance.
But the Governor of the Central Bank of Iran has a
different opinion regarding the country’s economic growth rate.
A while ago, the Governor of the Central Bank said
something rather interesting when he announced that we are only 0.7 percent
behind the objectives of the Fourth Economic Development Plan and that we will
be able to achieve an 8.5 percent growth rate by the end of the current
Iranian year. But this is impossible. No economic ration can accept that we
could boost the country’s economic growth rate from the current rate of 5
percent to 8 percent in the remaining few months.
I am surprised to hear somebody like Mr. Sheibani who has
spent a lifetime at the Central Bank of Iran to say such things through the
national television.
The question that arises is that how does the Governor of
the Central Bank state that we only lag 0.7 percent from the goals of the
Fourth Economic Development Plan when the Economic Bureau of the Central Bank
of Iran has clearly announced that we lag behind by 2.4 percent? Achieving an
economic growth rate of 8.5 percent requires a flurry of economic activity.
When this has not been achieved in the past six to seven month period, it is
quite clear that it will not happen in the remaining five to six month period
either. Therefore, I think officials should refrain from making such comments
and from announcing such unreal figures as expert testimonies.
What are the complications of presenting such unreal
statistics by related officials?
I think we will see the adverse affects of such
announcements in the next one or two years.
What sort of adverse affects do you mean?
I am referring to the stagnation of investment prospects,
an increase in the unemployment rate, and so on. The public will gradually
become aware of these adverse affects and the time will come when the
officials could do nothing to improve the situation. At a time when the world
is rapidly advancing, compensating for such backward steps will be very
difficult.
I officially announce that if we ignore the present
realities and fail to act deftly, we will certainly face crises and
difficulties in the future. For example, how can the Governor of the Central
Bank of Iran claim that the unemployment rate is declining when the reality
points to a large unemployed percentage? We have two hundred and ninety
deputies from various regions of the country present in the Majlis, ask
any one of them and they will say that unemployment is a serious concern for
their constituency and that the unemployment rate is certainly not declining.
In fact, many people who come to meet with Majlis deputies are seeking
jobs.
It is easy to announce figures, but when people do not feel
those figures in their real lives, it becomes clear that those figures are
false. This is true about inflation too. The problem cannot be solved by
hiding it or saying that inflation is imaginary or made up by the media. How
can I claim that meat, for example, is cheap when I personally purchased a
kilogram of meat for 6,5000 tomans at a cooperative store? High prices
are real. Inflation is real. We should not hide the reality about inflation or
high prices since that will lead people to become distrustful about whatever
the government says.
On the other hand, we have a problematic banking system
which has brought about stagnation in investments. If banks announced the
percentage of major investments opened in the current year, I am sure it would
not be more than four to five percent. Surely, this is going to affect the
national economy.
What is your opinion about various plans that are being
implemented in different provinces such as "provincial steel" plans? Some
experts believe that such plans are not economically feasible. Do you agree
with that?
No, I support provincial plans. We should be fair in
criticism. What has been done for steel is eye-catching. If the same were done
for aluminum and copper, it would be quite fruitful. If we could achieve
projected capacities by the end of the Fourth Economic Development Plan, it
would be a major breakthrough.
Let’s talk about the controversial "L-90" contract. Mr.
Katouziyan, a Majlis deputy, has always opposed the contract and
believes that the French company, Renault, has shorthanded Iran on the deal.
What is your opinion about the "L-90" contract?
I believe that the "L-90" contract is the best deal that we
have ever had with regard to automobile industry.
I am totally opposed to what Mr. Katouziyan says because
the contract is quite transparent and the French side has acceded to changes
that were proposed by the Majlis and the changes were added to "L-90"
contract as amendments. I think current criticism of the contract is not fair.
The English text of the contract is also available and shows that Majlis’
amendments have been included.
It seems that we are facing a complicated problem with
regard to car exports and our car exports is more similar to a mere "gesture"
right now. An example is problems that we have been facing for opening Samand
production line in Syria and the country’s car import tariff has been reduced
by 40 percent. Do we have to export at any cost?
We should find a solution to such problems. The world is
quite competitive and we must also play by the rules of the game. Otherwise,
we would fail. We must get prepared for accession to the WTO. Therefore, our
investments should be economically feasible. When we export cars, we are
facing rivals that produce 3-4 million cars which brings their overall cost
much lower. In regards the market conditions in Syria, our carmakers should
find solutions in consultation with the Syrian parties. We should not think
that we will fail there because import tariffs have been reduced. We should
strive to remain within that market. If exports proved to be uneconomical, we
would stop them. But I think presence in the Syrian market is still possible.
Lastly, how do you evaluate the performance, up to now, of
the Ministry of Industries and Mines under the current administration?
Some subsidiaries of the ministry like the Industries
Development and Renovation Organization or the Mines Development and
Renovation Organization are taking good steps, but there are other problems
and the Minister needs to act powerfully in order to find solutions to the
problems, which will at times put him at odds with others within the
government. The Ministry is trying to be effective, but the result is not
satisfactory. I think the Ministry of Industries and Mines should get rid of
its current conservatism and discuss the existing problems, rather than hiding
them in order to please the President.
In addition, making changes to specialized sectors and
replacing experienced directors with new, inexperienced ones could be very
dangerous. We hear news about possible changes in industrial units which, if
true, will greatly jeopardize those units. |