More than 100 years ago; that is, in
late 19th century and early 20th century, international economy witnessed the
highest level of relative freedom for transport of goods, services and capital
in the modern age following the first wave of globalization (1870-1914).
During the last decades of the 19th century, which are known by economic
historians as the "Golden Years" of Europe, per capita revenues of most
European countries more than doubled.
Technical and technological developments
as well as changing trade policies of some industrial countries had profound
effects on economic and trade growth of the world. Taking advantage of
electricity, new communication methods (telegraph and telephone) as well as
new means of transportation (especially marine routes) were major technical
factors which promoted economic development of the world.
Statistics related to those years show
that the costs of transport between the United States and Europe during those
years, decreased from 80 percent of total price of commodities to 20 percent.
Those technical changes were followed by reduction in trade and tariff
barriers among most European countries. For example, industrial and
agriculture tariffs in England were reduced to zero by 1914. As a result of
those factors, global trade grew at an average rate of 3.4 percent between
1870 and 1914.
Simultaneously, integration of global
capital markets increased in an unprecedented manner in early 20th century and
foreign owned assets accounted for about 20 percent of the world’s gross
domestic product. England, as the major banking hub of those years, owned 80
percent of foreign assets across the world. Between 1870 and 1914, exit of
capital averaged 4.5 percent of gross domestic product of those countries and
in some years, it even reached as high as 10 percent. In general, growth of
actual revenues, growth of world trade and integration of global economy, both
through eliminating artificial trade barriers such as tariffs, and through
reducing transportation costs, are considered as major indicators of the first
wave of globalization. Those developments resulting in great improvement in
standards of living in advanced countries.
By early 18th century, living standards
of people in various parts of the world were almost similar. However, by the
end of the 19th century, and due to rapid economic growth in industrial
states, countries were divided into two rich and poor groups.
Breakout of the First World War led to
economic stagnation and stopped the first wave of globalization.
Due to interruption of transpiration
routes and, especially, due to high inflations in various countries due to
high costs of war, integration of countries in international economy was
reversed.
Despite efforts made to restore past
conditions after the end of the world war I, due to lack of structural
balances in the European economy and high value of pound Sterling when England
returned to gold-based monetary system in 1925, as well as due to heavy
remuneration that Germany had to pay and other economic maladies, economic
growth was quite slow in 1920s. Occurrence of Great Depression worsen that
trend. Real revenues of many countries took a nosedive and unemployment
exacerbated. Price of goods and service slumped remarkably and policies
adopted in reaction to those developments only made the situation worse. The
main characteristics of 1930s was increased customs tariffs and non-tariff
barriers as well as devaluation of currencies in most European countries.
Policies which were known as "make you
neighbor poor", led to rapid decrease in trade and price of tradable goods.
The biggest blow dealt to global trade
was from the United States, which approved a low that increased average
customs tariffs of that country to 59 percent by 1932.
|
At the beginning of the last decade of the 20th
century disintegration of the former Soviet Union was the most striking
development in the field of political economy of the world, which led to
emergence of new economies. |
The law, which led to the highest tariff
rates in the United States after the 19th century, further worsened the Great
Depression. Major feature of international political economy in those years
was unilateral measures taken by other countries. Although, signs of
improvement and prosperity were gradually seen in global economy in the late
1930s, the beginning of the Second World War and the need to meet wartime
demands, once again interrupted production and trade models. In general, the
global economy was less integrated in 1945-46 than finishing years of the
First World War. The United States, Canada, Australia, and few other
industrial states were not damaged by World War II as a result of wartime
conditions as well as protectionist and isolationist policies adopted by those
countries in 1930s. At the same time, the war had wreaked havoc to Europe, the
former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, China and Japan. The Soviet Union
and China took a different economic turn compared to other countries. As a
result, there were three major economic trends in the world in the wake of the
World War II. The first group comprised industrial (European) countries whose
production had been seriously damaged and their production structure had
changed. The second group comprised undeveloped countries most of whom
exported raw materials to warring countries and had amassed considerable
foreign exchange reserves (because imports were greatly limited during the
war). The third group consisted of countries that had separated their
economies from global economy through establishing a centralized economic
system. Of course, the third trend fell apart in 1990s and following
disintegration of the former Soviet Union.
When planning for post-war years
started, the global economy was characterized by the following features:
1) The United States had emerged as the
world’s strongest economic power.
2) Europe and Japan were badly damaged
by war and needed many resources for reconstruction.
3) Countries had concluded that mistakes
1930s should be prevented from being repeated through bolstering multilateral
cooperation through establishment of a suitable world body.
4) There was no way to supply long-term
private investments after experiences of 1930s.
Post-war planners presented a frame for
international economic cooperation and establishment of international
institutions in such fields as international monetary cooperation,
reconstruction and development, as well as international trade in good and
services.
Institutions which were established
through those efforts included International Bank for Reconstruction and
Development (the World Bank) and International Monetary Fund that were
established in 1994.
The third body was International Trade
Center, which was never established and was replaced by General Agreement on
Tariff and Trade (GATT). The agreement was signed by 23 countries in 1947 and
turned into multilateral global trade arrangements.
With the end of war, it soon transpired
that devastation in Europe and Japan is much more than was conceived before
while economic power of the United States also exceeded previous estimates. In
late 1950s, the United States accounted for 27 percent of global production
and 14 percent of the world’s total exports. The country also enjoyed 54
percent of total international reserves.
US aid for reconstruction of Europe
within frame of Marshal Plan caused production by industrial countries of
Europe to reach pre-war level in early 1950s. due to adoption of uniform
economic policies by advanced industrial countries, gradual reduction of
tariffs, and establishment of constant foreign exchange system, global economy
experienced its highest growth over a 25-year period (up to early 1970s). If
in 1950s, the US was considered a dominate economy, Europe and Japan played
the same role in early 1970s.
Growth rate of global trade between 1950
and 1973 stood at an annual average of 8 percent. In this way, during the said
period, which is known as the second wave of globalization, trade was still
"growth engine" as it was during the first wave and trade growth was almost
double the growth in global production. If in the first wave of globalization,
reduction in transportation costs increased trade; in the second wave,
reduction in tariffs and non-tariff barriers had a similar effect in goading
growth of the world trade.
In 1973, when industrial countries
played a major role in global economy, they accounted for 59 percent of the
world’s gross domestic product and 64 percent of exports. In 1970s, in
parallel to gradual economic problems which faced European countries
(especially between 1972 and 1973) new economic powers apart from western
industrial countries came to the surface. The most prominent economic feature
of those countries was role of exports as the main engine for economic growth
and development of the said countries.
The four countries were known as four
tigers of Asia and included South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Out
of those countries, South Korea experienced the most dynamic economic growth.
South Korea’s exports grew by more than 40 percent in 1960s and their actual
per capita income in the said decade rose at an average of 7-9 percent. South
Korea ranked the 15th big exporter in the world in 1982 and is now the world’s
11th exporting country. Of course, high growth rates of Southeast Asian
nations did not bring about major changes in the economic structure of the
world because those rates were experienced in countries that were generally
considered poor and did not have much clout in global economic scene.
Therefore, global economy was still divided into two major groups: industrial
and poor, developing countries.
The 1970s witnessed major developments
in global economy, especially in industrial states. Increased oil prices over
two periods and persistence of inflationary pressures in the European
countries as well as increased competitive power of Southeast Asian nations
were major markers of that decade.
Although negative effects of economic
developments was gradually waning in early 1980s, crisis resulting from
foreign liabilities in developing countries led to serious economic conditions
in many poor countries of Asia, Africa, and Latin America; so that, 1980 in
those countries is known as the "lost decade".
At the beginning of the last decade of
the 20th century disintegration of the former Soviet Union was the most
striking development in the field of political economy of the world, which led
to emergence of new economies.
In most years of 1990s, transitional
economic gradually took final steps to adapt themselves to necessities of
global economy and integrate into international economic system. Another major
development of that decade was emergence of China and India as major economic
powers, which focused on development of industrial exports as axis of their
economic development by taking advantage of economic development models of
Southeast Asian nations. The 1990s, which was prelude to economic developments
in the 21st century is known as the beginning of the third wave of
globalization. Approach of most countries under an open economic system and in
compliance with requirements of an open economic system, on the one hand, and
profound technological developments in a decade of communications and
information, on the other hand, ushered global economy into a period when
economic power relies on software and is knowledge-based. Software
developments in the recent decade had profound effects on global economy.
According to studies carried out at Chicago University, based on constant
price of 1998, cost of a 3-minue phone cal between New York and London was 93
dollars in 1931 while that cost has been reduced to one dollar in 2000 and
that with a much better quality. In 2006, the figure was further reduced to a
few cents.
Technical changes played a more
effective role in opening global economy than reduction in tariffs and other
trade barriers. At present, tariffs considered for commodities manufactured in
industrial nations is less than 5 percent and is zero for members of the
European Union. Today, Internet has changed into a means for the exchange of
goods and services and is an unprecedented factor in global economy. You order
goods on the one side of the globe and they are delivered within few hours on
the other side. Such transaction would have taken several months is the past.
Openness of global economy in late 20th century has greatly enhanced
interdependence of countries and has greatly increased relative importance of
international trade in global economy from 5.5 percent in 1950 to 17.2 percent
in 2000. Relative share of goods and services in global trade has also
changed. In 1980, share of agricultural services and industrial goods in total
trade of goods and services stood at 15 percent, 12 percent and 45 percent,
respectively, while corresponding figures for 2004 stood at 7 percent for
agriculture, 20 percent for service sector, and 59 percent for industrial
products. In addition to trade, per capita revenues of countries, including
developed and developing ones has greatly increased.
For example, per capita revenues in the
United States increased from 13,000 dollar in 1950 to 22,200 dollars in 1975
and 41,900 dollars in 2005.
These developments have changed power
structure of the world economy. If in 1950, the United States was unrivaled
economic power of the world, Europe and Japan played the same role in 1970
while India and China have emerged as effective economic forces in the world.
On the whole, the second and third waves
of globalization, which stretch from early 1950 up to now, have greatly
changed global economy as well as many countries of the world. During that
period (50 years), gross domestic product of the world has increased 10 times
while per capita revenue has increased by an average of 3 percent. During
1990-95, average growth of production in developing countries stood at 5
percent (higher than global average of 2 percent). In 1997, growth rate of
those countries’ exports reached 7 percent (two times the global export growth
rate of 3.5 percent). In addition, total capital flowing to developing
countries has increased from 28 billion dollars in 1970 to about 306 billion
dollars in 1997. Of course, globalization has been ensued with positive
outcomes; there have been negative effects too.
One-eighth of people in industrialized
nations are poor and about one-third of people in developing countries (about
1.5 billion) are living in poverty. Some 480 million people are suffering from
malnutrition and more than 260 million school-age children are not attending
classrooms. More than 850 million adults are still unable to write and read.
In 1997, out of total world population,
the two upper deciles in rich countries accounted for 86 percent of global
revenues while the two lower deciles in poor countries, accounted only for one
percent of global revenues.
There is no doubt that global economy is
now much more integrated and interdependence of countries has greatly
increased. Globalization of economy, which is the main index of modern
international economy, has turned into a rapidly progressive process with two
different functions. Experience shows that this process offers countries with
many opportunities and it is suitable policies adopted by countries that allow
for those opportunities to boost people’s welfare (as shown in China and
India). On the opposite, wrong policies as well as weak and inefficient
management have caused many countries to reel around in a perennial vicious
circle of poverty.
The global economy does not provide
modern societies with justice, but opportunities to gain wealth and power. It
is for managers of every society to distribute that power equally among their
people in a sustainable manner while maintaining efficiency.