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Today, Asia is among the star
performers in the global economy. The region found strength in no small
part by turning crisis into opportunity. |
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Asia After A Decade |
Ten
years ago, the Asian financial crisis of 1997–98 began to unfold. Few
countries in the region were left untouched, and the aftereffects reverberated
across the globe. A decade later, Asia shines in the global economic
landscape, and its vitality stands out as a remarkable achievement. But what
lies behind this success, and what are the new challenges for a region that
has become a dynamo for the world economy?
A look
back: In
retrospect, the Asian financial crisis proved to be a temporary setback,
despite its enormous economic and social costs. Its hallmark was the sudden
reversal of investor sentiment and abrupt withdrawal of international capital.
Doubts about the soundness of financial institutions and corporates spread
quickly across national borders, creating a vicious circle of capital
outflows, plummeting exchange rates, and crippling balance-sheet effects in
the crisis-struck countries. Private demand collapsed and output in the most
affected economies contracted quickly and sharply. The underdevelopment of
social safety nets to protect those most exposed to economic disruptions
exacerbated the social and economic impact of the slumps.
The
international community stepped in to help as private investors were
stampeding for the exits, providing external financing (including IMF
assistance), while governments in the region adjusted policies, taking
increasingly strong and appropriate action, and steps were taken to coordinate
private sector financing. After some adjustments, this combination eventually
turned the tide: confidence recovered and capital started returning. As
financial and real sector weaknesses were tackled, output in the hardest-hit
countries began expanding again. The most determined reformers were the first
to claw back the ground lost and, by 2003, GDP in all crisis countries had
surpassed its precrisis level. GDP per capita took a bit longer to do so.
Fast-forward:
Today, Asia is among the star performers in the global economy. The region
found strength in no small part by turning crisis into opportunity. The
testing times of the late 1990s have rekindled a sense of regional identity
and shared economic destiny. Regional policy forums have taken on renewed
importance. Policy cooperation is gaining traction, and initiatives like the
Chiang Mai network of bilateral swap lines among Asian central banks, which is
now being converted into a reserve-pooling arrangement, and the Asian Bond
Fund project provide a welcome measure of self-insurance and commonality of
purpose. In addition, intraregional trade has grown rapidly, with the
development of complex supply chains centered on China.
At the same time, Asia has not
turned its back to the outward-looking orientation that propelled its
spectacular rise on the world's economic stage. Intraregional commerce is so
far complementing—not substituting for—global trade. With deepening financial
and trade connections inside and outside the region, Asia's economic vitality
10 years after the crisis stands out. The countries that were most affected by
the crisis have made good progress in laying solid foundations for continued
growth and their medium-term prospects are bright.
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Over the past decade,
inequality has risen steadily across the region. China displays now a more
skewed income distribution than the United States or Russia. |
What lies behind their
success? The key to today's dynamism has been nimbler macroeconomic policy
frameworks and comprehensive reforms in the financial and corporate sectors.
More flexible exchange rate regimes have cushioned external shocks and an
impressive war chest of official reserves has been built up; inflation
targeting has provided a monetary anchor in many cases; and fiscal policies
have taken on a longer-term perspective to safeguard debt sustainability. As
for structural reforms, measures to deal with the immediate strains in the
financial system have been complemented by steps to address the underlying
weaknesses. Mechanisms to facilitate financial restructuring are now in place,
regulatory and prudential frameworks have been upgraded, and corporate
governance has been strengthened. More work lies ahead, but financial
institutions and corporates in Southeast Asia have, on the whole, regained a
solid footing.
While the hardest-hit
countries were busy cleaning up the legacies of the crisis, the rest of Asia
was not standing still. China and India have made further strides as regional
powerhouses, the Philippines has weathered bouts of turbulence and gained
considerable resilience, Vietnam has burst onto the global economic scene, and
Japan has finally extricated itself from its "lost decade" and entrenched
deflation.
The IMF has worked closely
with economies in the region on their reform programs throughout the past
decade. Increasingly, this has been done as part of the Fund's normal
surveillance activities, including under new transparency and financial sector
initiatives.
The
next 10 years?:
So what is ahead for Asia? Much will depend on whether it can tackle a number
of issues over the medium term. While priorities differ across countries, a
common theme stands out—coping with globalization and harnessing the
tremendous upside it could deliver. For instance, the ever-greater
participation of China and India in the global economy is opening up new
horizons for the rest of the region, but the potential benefits do not come
without risks. Nor does the increased fluidity of global capital movements.
More broadly, as the pace of world integration quickens, vulnerabilities and
social strains from rapid structural change and external shocks are bound to
come to the fore, hand in hand with new opportunities. Governments—in Asia, as
elsewhere—need to put in place shock absorbers to mitigate the impact of
negative outcomes, as well as adopt policies that help capture the gains from
deeper integration.
Although the challenges are many, here we focus on just two of the most
important—the need to address worsening income inequality and learning to live
with potentially unstable capital flows.
Income
inequality: Over
the past decade, inequality has risen steadily across the region. For example,
China displays now a more skewed income distribution than the United States or
Russia. Even Japan, once the poster child of a fairly equalitarian society, is
today more unequal than the average industrial country. In fact, widely used
measures of income dispersion, such as the Gini coefficient and indicators of
the size of the middle class, all point in the same direction—a more unequal
sharing of income (including along a rural-urban divide) and more polarization
for Asian societies.
The causes of Asia's growing
disparities are complex. Several factors may be at play, but skill-biased
technical progress in the more advanced economies and the transition from
agriculture to industry in developing ones appear to be the main forces
shaping income distribution in the region. Globalization is of course
providing the broader context for the changes in technology and patterns of
production that are at the root of differential wage and sectoral
developments. Besides ethical or social implications, worsening inequality is
a concern for economic policymakers. If unattended, growing disparities could
strain social cohesion and undermine the support for further engagement in the
global economy, in spite of great potential benefits. More broadly, tears in
the social fabric could lead to inferior economic outcomes—namely, lower
long-term growth, macroeconomic instability, and dwindling room for maneuver
when adverse shocks occur.
Asian policymakers are looking
for ways to stem the trend. Specific measures depend on individual country
circumstances, but in all cases need to be supported by sound macroeconomic
management, which is necessary for sustainable growth. Growth holds out the
greatest promise for lifting the poor out of poverty and providing better
opportunities to the disadvantaged. Policy options to address inequality more
directly include greater and more effective spending on education and
infrastructure to build human capital and enhance the allocation of resources;
labor market reforms that facilitate hiring and improve the employment
conditions of nonregular workers; more equal access to financial markets to
empower the poor and improve economic efficiency; and regulatory reforms to
bolster the investment climate. Because the old tend to be poorer, steps to
better absorb the fiscal impact of rapid population aging will also help
redress income and geographical disparities in several countries.
Unstable capital flows:
The other big challenge facing Asia relates to the ongoing integration of its
capital market, both within the region and globally. The region's large
current account surplus continues to be the main reason for its overall
balance of payments surplus. But, whereas net inflows to emerging Asia remain
close to their long-run average relative to aggregate GDP, gross capital
inflows and outflows are at record highs. Capital is pouring in because of
ample global liquidity and an expanded international investor base. It is
being attracted by improved fundamentals, favorable interest rate
differentials on domestic assets (especially against the yen), and broader and
deeper regional financial integration. Savings have also been flowing out of
the region as never before. Active official reserve management in some cases,
more relaxed restrictions on residents' investment abroad in others,
and—throughout the region—better integration of markets and production
structures have provided powerful drivers for gross outflows.
Gross flows have also become
more volatile in recent years. The increased importance of portfolio and other
investments (notably bank lending and derivative transactions) explains the
trend and underscores the possibility of financial swings in either direction.
Surges in capital movements (at times, in the context of yen carry trades—the
practice of borrowing yen to invest in higher-yielding assets denominated in
foreign currencies) have become a policy concern. As the 1997–98 crisis made
all too clear, rapid capital inflows carry the dangers of disruptive real
appreciations, asset price bubbles, and imprudent domestic lending, on the one
hand—and may lead to widespread economic and financial dislocations if they
come to a sudden stop or turn into panic outflows, on the other.
No surefire policy tool exists
to deal with potentially unstable financial flows, but mutually reinforcing
and consistent policies hold the best promise. Greater exchange rate
flexibility in the context of sound macroeconomic policies—and, perhaps,
intervention to smooth exchange rate movements without undue "leaning against
the wind"—may be the least costly approach to absorb surges in capital
inflows, after all.
A complementary strategy for
Asia is to push forward with the development of domestic financial markets,
including in the context of intraregional financial integration. Regional
financial markets outside Hong Kong SAR, Singapore, and Tokyo are small,
especially bond markets, and equity markets are less liquid than those in
mature economies. Deeper and broader capital markets will provide a first
bulwark against disruptions from unpredictable capital movements and perhaps
add a measure of stability by retaining Asian savings within the region.
Intraregional financial integration can be spurred by further steps to
strengthen market infrastructure, corporate governance, and risk management at
financial institutions, as well as coordinated efforts to harmonize financial
regulations and tax treatments. Government-led initiatives in these areas are
providing helpful support to a market-driven, bottom-up process in the
background. Further liberalization of remaining restrictions on outflows can
also support deeper integration and potentially offset swings in capital
inflows.
Growing income inequality and
potentially erratic capital flows are but two examples of the challenges that
globalization presents to Asia. The to-do list for Asia's policymakers is
longer. Steps are needed in many cases to encourage household consumption and
private investment to reinforce the domestic underpinnings of growth and limit
the region's reliance on external demand. Stronger domestic demand will go
hand in hand with stronger currencies throughout the region, facilitating a
global rebalancing of world growth and an orderly resolution of current
account imbalances.
At the same time,
protectionism must be resisted as external pressures to open up domestic
markets build. By the same token, it will be important to avoid distortions to
trade that the proliferation of preferential trade agreements in the region
threatens to create. Additional product and labor market reforms may also be
necessary to facilitate the development of new areas of comparative advantage
as patterns of production and trade shift. Finally, many countries need to put
in place welfare systems that cushion, but do not obstruct, structural change,
while policy space must be found to deal with the environmental impact of
rapid growth. |