Fifteen Years Needed
to Return to 2005 Zero Point
Restoration of government's credit among citizens
and the international system is one of the main challenges and duties of
the next government.
Thanks to the performance of the current government, it would be fair enough
to say that in the years to come we will be facing numerous difficulties.
Due to the vastness and depth of abnormalities imposed on the national
economy and development prospects the damage on our economy is widespread.
In this period (under the administration of the incumbent government) we
have fetched one of the most unprecedented levels in oil revenues. These
revenues have caused dependence of Iranians in all aspects of life but with
the least positive impact on their life. The oil income has had the least
significant effect on national production and creation of new capacities. It
has also drawn the least promising prospect for welfare and employment.
In terms of facts and figures, the rate of development of fixed capital in
Iran's economy according to the Fourth and Fifth Development Plans was
specifically expected to reach 12% which figure in the years of the Fourth
Plan hardly reached 3%.
This means the government in the course of the Fourth Plan years spent over
four times more than the oil revenues to realize only one fourth of the
capital which could be obtained with one fourth of the oil revenues. In
terms of target setting for realization of the goals stipulated in the
20-Year Vision Plan, we are facing a worrying and perilous situation. The
prospect is tantamount to the national covenant realization of which
objectives is currently considered one of the biggest challenges.
In terms of institutional arrangements and executive procedures, one of the
worst heritages left from the incumbent government is its unconventional and
anti-development insistence in the field of aversion from science, law and
planning. In the past six or seven years and according to reports released
by the State Auditing Organization the government has made two thousand
violations through budget channel each year. This means the government has
committed 15 administrative violations every working day.
Restoration of law, science and planning to the country as the most
important components of development is among the most major challenges of
the next government. Although this government came to power with big claims
on campaign against corruption and institutionalization of justice, however
the most deplorable performance of the government has been in this section.
In some years of the past seven years Iran's relative stand in the area of
government performance has dropped 75 ranks in terms of economic virtue.
Iran has been placed in the group of countries with the highest economic
corruption level. A year before the current government came to power Iran
ranked 87 internationally and stood among the first half of the world in
terms of economic virtue. Currently, we stand almost at the end of the list
of the second half and among the worst countries.
Restoring Iran's dignity is one of the most critical responsibilities of the
new government. Also, Iran's ranking in the past seven years has dropped by
63 ranks in terms of environment quality. With regard to the business
environment, Iran has collapsed by 20 ranks. Restoration of government's
credit among citizens and the international system is one of the main
challenges and duties of the next government.
According to a report released by the Ministry of Health up to the calendar
year 1389 (2010-2011) the number of those who fell down below the poverty
line rose from the 1% to 5% in 1390 (2011-2012), that is to say an increase
of about 500%. According to reports, with regard to education, one third of
the total population of school age children is excluded from the cover of
the Ministry of Education. This is an indication of the inflation generating
policies of the government and increasing stagnation.
In view of economic policies, the main plague is creation of an atmosphere
of mistrust among productive sectors of the economy. The gap between
development plans and rate of development of fixed investment is indicative
of the impacts of destabilizing policies of the government which have forced
the private sector to flee the scene.
Present statistics show that 10 to 15 years are needed in order to restore
the zero position of the calendar year 1384 (2005-2006). But, in the case of
normal-cultural components it would take two decades to repair the damage
caused. As for the second phase of the targeted subsidies and the process
for its implementation, first it should be seen how much that government is
committed to science and planning. On the basis of this commitment different
scenarios could be prepared. The most destructive measure in terms of
retreating in sustainable development is for a government to hinder its
citizens from active participation and accustoms them to receive charity.
In the literature of sustainable development we have a phrase which refers
to the priority of creating job opportunities to cash subsidies. If the
government instead of instability of the environment of macro economy and
forcing the private sector to escape had planned for improvement of business
environment and prepared the ground for creating job opportunities, on
average welfare of citizens compared to receiving subsidies would go one
thousand per cent higher.
Now the government pays 450 thousand rials (per person per month) but the
minimum revenue for employed individuals would be 5 million rials which is
10 times more than the charity the government pays. In the meantime, the
effects and outcomes of unemployment as well as direct and indirect
consequences have been imposed on the society.