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Peaceful Waterway
Diplomacy, dialogue and cultural interactions are needed to establish a real security in the region

 

 

 

In discussing regional security, such concepts as power, the role of economy in the national power, regional vulnerabilities and national interests should be defined first.

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‘Power’ has a new definition in the modern day: In the past, power meant military strength, but now ‘software’ is believed to be necessary for being a powerful country. Fundamentals of power are economic, social, scientific and technological development. In many countries, what is considered as gaining more power is actual undermining of power. For example, during the 1990s over 30% of GDP of countries in the Persian Gulf southern shores was used for arms.
Arms purchase apparently can bring about more power, but as far as the real meaning of power is concerned, this would mean weakness for these countries. Because when 35% of GDP is used for arms, it means economic, technological and industrial development has not received due attention and budget. This lack of growth would eventually reduce the national power of a country.
An example in this regard is the former Soviet Union, whose military power matched that of the West, but lack of a balance in the meaning of power in this country, which was known as a superpower, led to its disintegration. The power of regional countries mainly is dependent on their oil revenues, while the presence of foreign forces in the region is a heavy blow on the national security of the regional countries, because it is felt as a threat for them.
If we roughly estimate the global oil reserves at 1,000 billion barrels, 660.8 billion of this amount is located in five countries around the Persian Gulf: Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the U.A.E. It is predicted that as of 2020, oil exports would be under the monopoly of these countries and the oil reserves in other countries would be finished or would not be a remarkable amount. (See table 1)

Table 1 – Five oil-richest countries and their reserves

Country Oil Reserves (billion barrels) Share in the Global Oil Reserves (%)
Iran

Iraq

Kuwait

U.A.E.

Saudi Arabia

93

112

96.5

98.5

261.5

9

10.8

2.9

9.4

25.2

It has been predicted that Iran can produce oil at the current level for 69 years, Iraq, Kuwait and U.A.E. for more than 100 years and Saudi Arabia for 83 years.
Given the fact that new oil reserves are discovered in Iran, it can be estimated that this country is able to pump oil at the same level for another 80 years. The total oil reserves in the region can be translated into power and any cooperation for properly using this power can bring about security for the region.
Exporting this source of energy is an important issue for industrial countries and the waterway through which this oil is transported also plays a very significant part. The security of this waterway should be guaranteed because the quick progress in global power is dependent on it.
If, instead of expansion of economy and a competition for achieving a sustainable growth, regional countries enter into an arms race, the real power will be forgotten; this is a big blunder on the part of the regional countries which would endanger their security by doing so.
On the other hand, one of the objectives of the West is to have more control over the global energy resources, because its continuous growth depends on this crucial resource. That’s the reason for the active presence of superpowers in the region.
Moreover, we should admit that there is some vulnerability in the region, including the border disputes between regional countries, that if not resolved in time, may turn into threats for them.
Regional countries should refrain from such conflicts and solve their misunderstandings peacefully. One of the problems they would make a decision about at once, is the presence of alien forces here. Another issue is Iraq and its return to the regional family, for which a solution should be found through a collective endeavor.
Some of the issues which should be considered regarding the role of Iran in regional security, are:

1. Structural realities of the region: There is a deep relation between the security of Iran and that of the Persian Gulf, because Iran enjoys a vast coastal zone with the Gulf.
2. Diplomacy, dialogue and cultural interactions are needed to provide a real security for the region.
3. Adopting transparent policies: which lies with the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC).

As expressed by the head of SNCS, Iranian policies in relation to security in the region are based on the following factors:

1. Protecting the vigor of the government
2. Rejection of the “monocular world” concept
3. The policy of détente in the region and the world as a whole
4. Solving differences through dialogue
5. Creating an amicable ambiance in the region
6. Fostering bilateral and multilateral ties
7. Moving toward more collaboration

The policies adopted by President Mohammad Khatami in recent years – including détente as a permanent element and not a short-term tactic – have proved effective in the region. It is advisable for the regional countries to define their regional identity more precisely, draw up new definition for the concept of power and strengthen cooperation among each other.