   
| Peaceful
Waterway |
| Diplomacy,
dialogue and cultural interactions are needed to establish a real security in the region |
In discussing regional security, such
concepts as power, the role of economy in the national power, regional vulnerabilities and
national interests should be defined first.
Power has a new
definition in the modern day: In the past, power meant military strength, but now
software is believed to be necessary for being a powerful country.
Fundamentals of power are economic, social, scientific and technological development. In
many countries, what is considered as gaining more power is actual undermining of power.
For example, during the 1990s over 30% of GDP of countries in the Persian Gulf southern
shores was used for arms.
Arms purchase apparently can bring about more power, but as far as the real meaning of
power is concerned, this would mean weakness for these countries. Because when 35% of GDP
is used for arms, it means economic, technological and industrial development has not
received due attention and budget. This lack of growth would eventually reduce the
national power of a country.
An example in this regard is the former Soviet Union, whose military power matched that of
the West, but lack of a balance in the meaning of power in this country, which was known
as a superpower, led to its disintegration. The power of regional countries mainly is
dependent on their oil revenues, while the presence of foreign forces in the region is a
heavy blow on the national security of the regional countries, because it is felt as a
threat for them.
If we roughly estimate the global oil reserves at 1,000 billion barrels, 660.8 billion of
this amount is located in five countries around the Persian Gulf: Iran, Saudi Arabia,
Iraq, Kuwait and the U.A.E. It is predicted that as of 2020, oil exports would be under
the monopoly of these countries and the oil reserves in other countries would be finished
or would not be a remarkable amount. (See table 1)
Table 1 Five oil-richest countries
and their reserves
| Country
|
Oil
Reserves (billion barrels) |
Share
in the Global Oil Reserves (%) |
| Iran Iraq
Kuwait
U.A.E.
Saudi Arabia |
93
112
96.5
98.5
261.5 |
9
10.8
2.9
9.4
25.2 |
It has been
predicted that Iran can produce oil at the current level for 69 years, Iraq, Kuwait and
U.A.E. for more than 100 years and Saudi Arabia for 83 years.
Given the fact that new oil reserves are discovered in Iran, it can be estimated that this
country is able to pump oil at the same level for another 80 years. The total oil reserves
in the region can be translated into power and any cooperation for properly using this
power can bring about security for the region.
Exporting this source of energy is an important issue for industrial countries and the
waterway through which this oil is transported also plays a very significant part. The
security of this waterway should be guaranteed because the quick progress in global power
is dependent on it.
If, instead of expansion of economy and a competition for achieving a sustainable growth,
regional countries enter into an arms race, the real power will be forgotten; this is a
big blunder on the part of the regional countries which would endanger their security by
doing so.
On the other hand, one of the objectives of the West is to have more control over the
global energy resources, because its continuous growth depends on this crucial resource.
Thats the reason for the active presence of superpowers in the region.
Moreover, we should admit that there is some vulnerability in the region, including the
border disputes between regional countries, that if not resolved in time, may turn into
threats for them.
Regional countries should refrain from such conflicts and solve their misunderstandings
peacefully. One of the problems they would make a decision about at once, is the presence
of alien forces here. Another issue is Iraq and its return to the regional family, for
which a solution should be found through a collective endeavor.
Some of the issues which should be considered regarding the role of Iran in regional
security, are:
1. Structural realities of the region:
There is a deep relation between the security of Iran and that of the Persian Gulf,
because Iran enjoys a vast coastal zone with the Gulf.
2. Diplomacy, dialogue and cultural interactions are needed to provide a real security for
the region.
3. Adopting transparent policies: which lies with the Supreme National Security Council
(SNSC).
As expressed by the head of SNCS, Iranian
policies in relation to security in the region are based on the following factors:
1. Protecting the vigor of the government
2. Rejection of the monocular world concept
3. The policy of détente in the region and the world as a whole
4. Solving differences through dialogue
5. Creating an amicable ambiance in the region
6. Fostering bilateral and multilateral ties
7. Moving toward more collaboration
The policies adopted by President Mohammad Khatami in
recent years including détente as a permanent element and not a short-term tactic
have proved effective in the region. It is advisable for the regional countries to
define their regional identity more precisely, draw up new definition for the concept of
power and strengthen cooperation among each other. |