The Economy Is Not Feeling Well Yet!
Iranís economy since the past years has been dependent on oil and
the overflow of the
surplus revenues in this sector has resulted in public investment in
sectors such as industry.
The economic growth rate of 2.7% can be promising for a country provided
that real growth takes place in all sectors rather than growth in one sector
would cover up failure in other sectors. One could be delighted over such an
economic growth when the growth is balanced and based on sound orientations;
but this is not the case with the economic growth of the first three
quarters of the current calendar year. We owe this growth not to sound
planning but to the lifting of the sanctions and resumption of oil exports.
Next year the situation will change again. In relation to the statistics
announced by different agencies always some debates may arise which is to
some extent due to lack of disclosure of precise indicators of all the
Iran Statistics Center (ISC) in a report has announced the economic growth
rate of the first three quarters of the current calendar year at 2.7%. This
figure is of course very appropriate for the economic growth but when its
impacts cannot be felt or observed in the economy, questions would come up.
According to the ISC report, the growth rate of significant sectors such as
housing and mining in the current year has been negative and the growth rate
of the industry sector is less too meager to attract attentions and the
total growth rate of the three sectors is negative.
However, the growth rate of over 85% of the oil sector put the economic
growth up. Of course this is indicative of the significant role oil plays in
Iranís economy as a whole which is considered alarming. The growth of gross
oil production has been the most important achievement of the nuclear talks
with P5+1 and at present the current output in this sector has not reached
that of 1391 (2012-2013) and in comparison with the previous year has passed
behind such growth. In addition, it should be noted that oil has not such an
outstanding share in providing employment. Out of 22 million working, only
200 thousand are active in the oil-related sectors. Also, the pre and
post-oil relations with other sectors of Iranís economy is meager and for
this reason growth in this section is noticeable only in indicators and not
in daily life.
In the agriculture sector, economic growth is only due to the huge
guaranteed purchase of wheat cultivators products by the government. Several
billion tomans have been spent on wheat purchase and still the growth of
this sector is 5% which in fact shows that problems of the agriculture
sector are so serious that huge purchases cannot open the way to obtain a
cross-sectional growth. Iranís economy since the past years has been
dependent on oil and the overflow of the surplus revenues in this sector has
resulted in public investment in sectors such as industry. The result was
that in the past 80% of the countryís industry was in the hand of the
Of course during this period privatization has been implemented but
unfortunately the major part of the new industry owners have acted so
inefficiently that it was hoped the industry would have remained in the
hands of the government. On the other hand, this practice led to the
emergence and institutionalization of problems in the economy which could be
clearly seen today. With the study of various aspects, it should be said
that the growth rate in 1395 (2016-2017) is by no means a source of honor
and thus cannot be relied upon. Iranís economy is still suffering from
recession and thus a solution should be thought for it. Letís not forget
that the economy is not feeling well yet!