The most important economic decisions at
that time were to fix prices (especially prices of energy carriers).
Supporters of that policy maintained that it would end a chronic inflation
which has been nagging the Iranian economy since many years ago. Many
economists warned that inflation has other causes which are more related to
monetary policies and, therefore, fixing prices cannot solve the problem.
However, that policy was implemented, but it not only failed to reduce
inflation, but also increased it from 10.4 percent in 2005 to 25.4 percent in
2008. The reasons was A sudden increase in illiquidity from 2004 to 2007
because when it reduced in 2008 due to economic recession, inflation rate also
fell and reached 10.8 percent in 2009.
Now, the policymakers have decided to
change the price of energy vectors, which is per se a good policy, though its
implementation is surrounded by much controversy.
On the other hand, although job creation
policies (like those which aimed to increase the number of small enterprises)
increased industrial investment between 2005 and 2007, but they did not lead
to economic growth and real job creation. In other words, expansionary
monetary policies on the basis of unprecedented high oil prices led to a
bubble in the housing sector. At the same time, economic growth rate has been
falling since the second half of the Iranian year, 1386 (2007-08), and that
fall still goes on.
It took more than four years for
statesmen to realize that the policy to fix prices was futile. As a result of
that delay in accepting that failure, huge resources were wasted, a big gap
has been created between existing market prices and real ones and bridging
that gap needs tremendous effort and a lot of energy. Policymakers, however,
have not totally admitted the failure of expansionary financial and monetary
policies and still insist that total demand should be stimulated by such
policies.
A more than 30-percent increase in
annual budget and the ensuing hefty deficit in government’s general
expenditure is the result of inattention to experiences gained in the past
four decades, especially in the past few years.
Under existing circumstances when
government’s heavy control on all markets has barred further growth of
economic activities, any policy aiming to stimulate demand will lead to
nothing but higher inflation. For how many more years, resources and time
should be wasted before decision-makers accept this obvious economic
principle?