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May
2008, Nos. 46&47 |
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Trade &
Business |
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Iran Lags behind Neighboring Countries |
Three university professors insist that
the best way to implement economic reforms is to review pricing system and
those who think about building institutions to optimize use of petrodollars
should note that as long as the pricing system is not operating correctly and
billions of dollars are paid in subsidies to keep foreign exchange rate as
well as price of fuel and other essential goods down, the government would be
able to cover up its economic mistakes.
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In our country, people elect one person through their
votes and the government is usually concerned about basic programs and
cares less about improving subsidies, gasoline price, or crediting more
money to the Oil Stabilization Fund. |
Mousa Ghaninejad, Massoud Nili, and
Mohammad Khoshchehreh took part at a gathering on ways of optimizing use of
oil revenues at Political and Economic Thought Institute where it was noted
that recognizing structures of governments and assessing historical
experiences will be influential in understanding ways for optimal use of oil
revenues.
Mousa Ghaninejad, a professor of Oil
Industry University, noted that "The economic modification policies which have
been started since 1989, constituted institutional reforms in domestic
economy, but only part of those reforms were implemented and experts complain
why they were not implemented in full." He added that instead of superficial
measures, the government should pay more attention to market mechanism and
improvement of pricing system.
The economist said that a few billion
dollars of foreign exchange reserves is not sufficient to fuel economic
reforms, but foreign investment should be attracted to result in transfer of
modern technology and management into the country.
Asked about the role of oil industry
nationalization in bringing about the status quo, Ghaninejad noted, "Mosaddeq
was a patriot, but after nationalization of the oil industry, oil revenues
were added to the budget and instead of being used for development of the
country, they were appropriated to current expenses just to cover government’s
economic mistakes. If great men of our country had not committed such a big
mistake, oil nationalization could have propped up the production and private
sectors, not to help the government to compete with the private sector and
become unaccountable."
"We could have prevented oil revenues to
make up part of the government’s expenses. Therefore, some 60 years after that
event, we must sit here and discuss ways of suitable appropriation of oil
revenues," he said.
Ghaninejad continued by saying that
Iran’s political economy has pursued self-sufficiency since the time of
Mosaddeq. "But we must think about interaction with the world and attraction
of foreign investments as well as technology transfer and increase our trade
exchanges under a healthy economic atmosphere. We must prefer interaction over
isolation."
The academician stated that from 1973 to
1977 and since 2005 up to the present time, the Iranian governments have
increased their expenses due to rising oil revenues and this has brought the
Dutch disease to domestic economy. Therefore, oil revenues had not improved
people’s welfare status in the years following 2005.
Nili: Governments use oil revenues to hide their economic
mistakes
Massoud Nili, then, explained about
three types of governments in oil-rich countries and noted, "Some countries
are dictatorships where one person rules all. An example is Saudi Arabia where
King Abdullah decides how oil revenues should be appropriated. In personal or
group democracies, one person heads the government. Also, a four- or even an
eight-year government like that of Khatami, mostly thinks about its own
problems and basic reforms are left to next governments. In party democracies,
where there are democrats, republicans, social democrats, Christian democrats
and other forms of political parties, performance of a party regardless of who
heads the government is usually assessed."
Nili added, "In our country, people
elect one person through their votes and the government is usually concerned
about basic programs and cares less about improving subsidies, gasoline price,
or crediting more money to the Oil Stabilization Fund. Five-year economic
development plans usually leave improvement of subsidies or fuel price to
later years, but every government thinks about its own problems and uses
financial resources to fill the gaps without accepting the costs of a logical
economic decision. Therefore, decisions have been made to improve the fuel
price for 15 years, but no government has been ready to pay the price."
Nili stipulated that in countries where
oil revenues are lacking, a wrong decision like devaluating a foreign currency
will face the government with a real crisis because the government is not
endowed with windfall benefits.
"In Iran, on the contrary, if foreign
exchange rate is held down for five years, exports are reduced and imports are
encouraged, or if price of gasoline and fuel is kept down leaving the
government with billions of dollars in budget deficit, the gap would be easily
filled using petrodollars," he added.
Former deputy head of Management and
Planning Organization for economic affairs also stated that in 1999 and when
the war with Iraq was over, the government was facing a budget deficit of 53
percent and the government was short of resources to keep dollar parity at 70
rials while its parity on the market was 30 times higher. "Few cars were
produced and sold to people by drawing lots and both the quality and quantity
of goods were low. Therefore, encouraging changes in pricing policies seemed
to be necessary in order to goad domestic production."
Nili added, "As long as the pricing
system, foreign exchange rate, subsidies, fuel price and so on, have not
become more rational, building institutions won’t be easy because optimal
performance of parties and media, investments, and correction of regulations
should be implemented after the pricing system is corrected.
"When liquidity expands due to incorrect
policies and inflation worsens, people and politicians blame businesses, but
it should be noted that in the past year and next year’s budgets, only 34
percent of government expenses are covered through real revenues and the
remaining 66 percent would be covered by oil revenues. Therefore, low
resilience of money, labor, and capital markets worsens inflation. The Central
Bank of Iran has not been setting monetary policies for years, but its British
counterpart regulates liquidity, and monetary transactions among banks are
handled through the private sector."
Former deputy head of Management and
Planning Organization for economic affairs further noted that after 2005,
economic phenomena similar to those which occurred between 1973 and 1977 were
repeated and unprecedented growth in oil revenues and government’s expenses in
addition to inefficient economic system caused the government’s current
expenses to treble in three years.
He added that if the current trend
continued until 2011, the general budget will add up to 14000 billion rials,
leaving the government with a deficit of 9,000,000 billion rials, which should
be covered through oil revenues. "If oil prices do not shot as high as 120
dollars per barrel and begin to fall due to global stagnation, it is not clear
how the budget deficit is to be covered."
Nili stated that increased oil revenues
caused a country, which earned 2.5 billion dollars on a population of 30
million before 1973, to get close to 50 billion dollars in imports while the
general budget is near 800,000 billion rials and economic mistakes are kept
hidden by spending oil revenue.
"The budgets that are drawn up by
governments cannot be implemented through financial discipline and every year,
more supplements are presented. Instead, the government should pay more
attention to making policies for the money market and pay more attention to
financial issues and foreign exchange rate to make suitable conditions for
those who were born between 1981 and 1986."
Khoshchehreh: Government seeks more revenues through
privatization
Mohammad Khoshchehreh, who represents
Tehran at the Iranian parliament (Majlis) and is a member of Majlis Economic
Commission, noted that the most dire problem faced by the Iranian economy is
the government’s near absence in those areas where it should be active and its
overwhelming presence where its presence is not really needed.
"Instead of being active in
infrastructural fields like transportation and power generation, our
governments pay more attention to business and this has disrupted the
country’s development course," he added.
The MP noted that since 1995, the
Supreme Leader and many high ranking officials have emphasized on weaning the
economy from oil revenues and noted that Iran is capable of turning into top
economic power of the region, but the country’s economic growth rate during
the past three years has been even lower than neighboring countries and the
gap with Turkey has widened.
"According to the Constitution, the
government is responsible for regulating housing price, but it has practically
let go of housing and land policies and, therefore, housing prices are not
controlled by the state…. It is a duty of governments to meet people’s basic
needs, but when 70 percent of people’s income is spent on housing and the
remaining 30 percent on consumer goods, neither producers nor retailers are
hopeful about prosperity of their businesses," he said.
Khoshchehreh added that the government
has given up housing sector while companies affiliated with the government are
active in other fields and this has led to isolation of the private sector.
"Share of taxes in revenues of advanced
countries stands at 98 percent and, therefore, they are sensitive to economic
prosperity. However, achieving a higher economic growth rate is a political
goal in Iran and is highly dependent on oil. It is not clear until when it can
be used as leverage to prove a government’s success in economic fields," he
said.
The MP added that Iranian governments
try to prove that they are more efficient by spending their financial
resources while economic principles stipulate that the governments should
choose long-term goals, not populist and short-term ones.
"The government seeks to increase its
earning even through privatizing state-run companies in line with Article 44
of the Constitution ignoring the fact that such an approach to privatization
is like a poison," he opined.
Khoshchehreh noted that the Fourth
Economic Development Plan has emphasized that the government should eliminate
its dependence on oil revenues. "However, the government has not only failed
to do that, but its dependence on petrodollars has also increased more than
any time before," he concluded. |
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CURRENT ISSUE |
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May 2008
Nos. 46&47 |
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